CBRE’s 2026 Thai Market Map: Winners, Losers and Where to Place Your Bet

How CBRE Sees the real estate Thailand market in 2026

CBRE’s 2026 outlook for property in Thailand — and for real estate Thailand more broadly — lays out a market of contrasts. Some sectors look ready to expand; others will tighten as supply outpaces demand. For buyers and investors that means choices: chase higher-end condo gains in central Bangkok or look to industrial land where demand remains firm. Our analysis parses the report and draws practical conclusions for investors, owner-occupiers and expat buyers.

In the first 100 words I must flag the key theme: a selective recovery where quality and location drive outcomes. CBRE’s report gives clear data points you can use when sizing risk: retail supply totals, tourism forecasts, condo sales rates and vacancy shifts in logistics are all spelled out.

Retail: new malls meet stretched demand — occupancy will soften

Bangkok’s retail makeup continues its shift toward experience and neighbourhood convenience. Developers keep launching projects and refreshing older assets to attract eateries, experiential concepts and international brands. That said, the numbers warn of a near-term supply overhang.

• Total retail stock was 8.25 million sqm in 2025.
• An additional 0.3 million sqm is due in 2026.
• About 75% of new retail supply is concentrated in midtown and suburban locations.

CBRE expects that new supply will outpace tenant absorption, pushing average mall occupancy below 90%. The result is increased competition among landlords in less affluent catchments where consumers are more price-sensitive.

What this means for investors and occupiers

• Landlords of older, poorly positioned centres will need to rethink tenant mixes and lease models to remain competitive.
• Investors should prioritise assets with clear experiential draw—F&B, lifestyle leisure and curated entertainment—which is where international retailers continue to place bets.
• For tenants, negotiating levers are growing: shorter leases, tenant-fit incentives and turnover-based rent structures can be secured in weaker locations.

Keep an eye on the origin of new brands: 20% of new foreign entrants in 2025 were from China, with Japan and Europe each contributing 18%. That flow influences footfall patterns and tenant demand in specific retail precincts.

Hospitality: more rooms, tougher competition, but selective upside

Thailand’s tourism recovery is central to hotel investment returns. CBRE notes fewer than 33 million international arrivals in 2025 but cites potential for higher-spending segments: medical tourism, wellness and MICE.

• The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) targets 36.7 million visitors in 2026.
• Bangkok expects an influx of more than 4,300 keys in 2026, skewed to upscale and luxury products.
• Midscale hotels will account for about 43% of total supply.

CBRE projects occupancy can improve by up to 2 percentage points and RevPAR by 3%-4% in 2026, even as ADR growth is restrained by supply, currency moves and regional competition.

Investor takeaways for hotels

• Upscale and branded-luxury hotels may capture higher ADR and diversified revenue streams, but they will face direct competition from new room supply.
• Operators that broaden income sources—F&B, meetings, wellness packages—stand a better chance of offsetting rate pressure.
• For bond-like stability, focus on assets whose cash flow depends less on mass-tourism volumes and more on niche high-spend segments.

Residential condominiums: quality-driven price moves, polarised outcomes

The condominium market is bifurcating. Luxury and super-luxury launches are expanding while affordability segments feel the squeeze from intense competition and financing constraints.

• Existing luxury and super-luxury condo supply is selling at about 93%.
• Downtown asking prices could rise by up to 15% year-on-year, buoyed by super-luxury launches emphasising privacy, branded residences and elevated services.
• Affordable suburban projects face downward pressure, with average asking prices likely to fall by up to 10% year-on-year.

Midtown and suburban markets continue to deal with high mortgage rejection rates, a factor that pushes developers to launch only in areas with visible demand signals such as transport hubs, universities and hospitals.

Practical advice for buyers and investors

• If you are an investor targeting capital growth, central Bangkok super-prime condos look attractive on price momentum but require deep market knowledge and patience on hold periods.
• Owner-occupiers should prioritise proximity to transport nodes and essential services — these are the locations where demand remains resilient.
• For rental investors, avoid oversupplied affordable submarkets where price competition will depress yields; instead consider midtown locations with constrained new supply.

I would caution buyers: higher asking prices in downtown sectors are tied to a narrow subsegment; broad market uplift is not guaranteed.

Low-rise housing: inventory build and buyer caution

Low-rise housing (townhouses and single-family homes) is in a cautious phase. Rising unsold inventory and weak buyer confidence slowed developer activity.

• New housing permits in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region fell by 30% in 2025.
• Resale activity has picked up as buyers prefer certainty and accessible financing compared with new launches.

Developers will remain selective, focusing launches on higher-end low-rise products and phasing them to test demand. The self-build subsegment also plays a non-trivial role in overall housing supply.

For developers and buyers

• Developers should phase new low-rise projects and include stronger buyer protections to restore confidence.
• Buyers can use the present environment to negotiate price and financing terms on resale units; expect sellers to be more flexible where inventory is high.

Office market: flight-to-quality tightens prime stock and lifts rents for the best assets

The office sector is where the “flight-to-quality” trend has the clearest financial impact. Occupiers prefer newly developed or refurbished Grade A+ assets, and landlords of those buildings can raise rents.

• CBRE projects net take-up in 2026 around 100,000 sqm, slightly below 2025 levels.
• 95% of relocations in 2025 involved upgrading or moving to a similar grade.
• The best Grade A+ offices with occupancies above 80% may see asking rents rise by up to 3% year-on-year.

Limited new office supply over the next four years supports this split-market dynamic: premium assets will command higher rents, while older or poorly managed stock will face falling occupancy and rents.

What occupiers and investors should consider

• Corporates planning relocations should prioritise buildings with sustainability credentials, good transport links and flexible floorplates — these attributes define Grade A+ demand.
• Investors should accelerate asset enhancement plans where feasible; capex spent on energy efficiency and tenant amenities can translate into measurable rent premiums.

Industrial and logistics: land demand strong, but modern logistics may see rising vacancy

The industrial story remains one of demand for land and built-to-suit capacity, though modern logistics product has a nuanced forecast.

• Industrial land sales will stay active in 2026 thanks to high pre-commitments and government support.
• Existing industrial vacancy remains low — below 5% for many product types — while modern logistics (MLP) vacancy is forecast to rise from 10% to 13% as new supply outpaces immediate demand.

Demand for ready-built factories (RBF) and serviced industrial land (SILP) is healthy, driven by regional trade realignments and supply-chain diversification.