Top 10 real estate markets by 2024: sales growth and affordability.

In most of 2023, many potential home buyers have been held back by a stubborn lack of offers and high mortgage interest rates. Property owners are holding their homes and mortgage rates below 5%, not selling them to buy others at the current inflated rates. Thus, not surprisingly, sales of existing homes were down 15% from a year ago in October. The number of offers on the housing market fell 6% over the same time.

But with mortgage rates falling over the past six weeks, with the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage at 7% (down from nearly 7.8% at the end of October), experts believe that 2024 could be the year when''Potential buyers will finally get a break.

Which markets are poised to experience the greatest growth in home sales and prices next year?

Five of this year's ten metros are in Southern California, which is expected to perform better than the state as a whole. According to Realtor.com's analysis, these markets expect an average sales growth of 13.1 percent in 2024, while the other 100 California markets are expected to see a 4.1 percent decline in sales. Five other metros offer relatively low values compared to the national median home price, especially in the Midwest and Northeast.

"Now that we are starting to see the beginnings of a reversal in home prices, buyers are still looking for markets where they''can take advantage of lower prices," says Realtor.com chief economist Daniel Hale. "Even in some of the more expensive markets, we'll see double-digit sales growth as they begin to recover from historic lows, thanks to mortgage rates that are expected to finally give way. "

A higher percentage of homeowners without a mortgage.

The top markets in the Midwest and Northeast states are more affordable, and all five markets in these areas, with the exception of Worcester, Massachusetts, have an average price below the national average.

The California dichotomy

Five California metros made the list of the top 10 real estate markets, but none of them are in the Bay Area or among Northern California metros. The top five California metros are Oxnard, San Diego, Riverside, Bakersfield and Los Angeles. Sales in these five areas are expected to grow 13% on average in 2024, compared to an average decline in sales''by 4% for the other California metros in the top 100. However, these top California metros are still projected to have historically low sales despite major improvements from depressed 2023 figures. Reflecting national numbers expected to be about 25% below 2017-2019 annual norms, sales in these California metros are also expected to be 20-35% lower than a typical pre-pandemic year from 2017 through 2019.

The top real estate markets of 2023:

• Tolido, Ohio
  • November 2023 median home price: $200,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +14%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +8.3%
  • Projected''Sales and price change for 2024: +22.3%
• Oxnard, Calif.
  • November 2023 median home price: $1,037,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +18.0%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +3.3%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +21.3%
• Rochester, New York
  • November 2023 median home price: $239,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +6.2%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +10.4%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +16.6%
• San Diego, CA
  • November 2023 median home price: $995,000
  ''
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +11.0%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +5.4%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +16.3%
• Riverside, California
  • November 2023 median home price: $585,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +13.8%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +2.0%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +15.8%
• Bakersfield, CA
  • November 2023 median home price: $385,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +13.4%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +2.3%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for''2024: +15.7%
• Springfield, Massachusetts
  • November 2023 median home price: $350,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +10.5%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +4.2%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +14.7%
• Worcester, Massachusetts
  • November 2023 median home price: $475,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +9.1%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +4.8%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +13.9%
• Grand Rapids, Michigan
  • November 2023 median home price: $390,000
  • Projected Change''House sales for 2024: +6.1%
  • Projected change in house prices for 2024: +7.2%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +13.3%
• Los Angeles
  • November 2023 median home price: $1,150,000
  • Projected change in home sales for 2024: +9.2%
  • Projected change in home prices for 2024: +3.5%
  • Projected change in sales and prices for 2024: +12.7%