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5 signs of unnoticed economic pain from my favorite source, the Federal Reserve.

5 signs of unnoticed economic pain from my favorite source, the Federal Reserve.

5 signs of unnoticed economic pain from my favorite source, the Federal Reserve.

Officials of the Federal Reserve spend a lot of time analyzing economic data, but sometimes it makes more sense to take a more practical approach, and that’s exactly what the Beige Book is for. Published eight times a year, the Beige Book, named for its cover color, compiles insights about the current state of the economy gathered from interviews, reports, and surveys conducted by each of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

Former Federal Reserve vice chairman Alan Blinder once described it as the "ask your uncle" approach to the economy.

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With forecasts changing rapidly over the past year - from recession to soft landing to the current favorite: faster growth and higher inflation in a no-landing scenario - the anecdotal details of the April Beige report have been thoroughly parsed by many experts.

After strong data on consumer spending and the third hot inflation report of the year, even Chairman Jerome Powell postponed the possibility of the widely anticipated market-stimulating interest rate cuts during the recent forum in Washington, D.C. However, instead of pointing to signs of an overheated economy, the latest Beige Book indicates the opposite, revealing signs of slowing economic growth.

"The Beige Book indicates more slowdown in employment and economic activity than is reflected in the 'hard' indicators of the American economy, such as employment reports or real GDP," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an email to Fortune magazine.

Even worse, surveys and interviews from the Federal Reserve have shown that many Americans are still struggling with the high cost of living; certain sectors of the economy are facing painful corrections; and there is evidence that charities are unable to cope with the growing demand for their services.

If you were to ask your uncle, he would tell you about the state of the US economy right now - and it's far from as great as the "hard" data suggests.

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