Bankers are pleasing everyone: inflation is falling, and interest rates are too! Find out the exact time for price reductions.
Real estate prices in Serbia are currently stagnating, and no one can confidently predict how they will be in 2024.
For future apartment buyers, the bankers' statement about the expectation of a decrease in inflation and interest rates next year is important, which also includes mortgage loans.
The European Central Bank is currently pausing interest rate hikes.
Forecasts indicate that starting from the beginning of next year, likely in September, a easing of monetary policy will begin.
This was specifically mentioned at the International Conference on the Real Estate Market in Southeast Europe, Balkans Property Forum 2023, which took place in Belgrade.
However, a number of domestic experts emphasize that the situation in the European market will not automatically and simultaneously reflect on the Serbian market, and our central bank will monitor inflation in Serbia.
As banker and financial consultant Vladimir Vasic says, this will happen more slowly than in the EU, and it is expected that the National Bank of Serbia will lower interest rates in the first half of 2025, after which mortgage interest rates will also decrease.
According to the latest data, inflation in the EU is at 2.4%, which is good news for everyone, notes Vasich, adding: "This is encouraging and means that in the second half of next year, the cost of money in Europe may decrease."
It is expected that monetary policy will be eased once inflation reaches the target level of 2%, which means from +3% to -1.5%.
Then the European Central Bank will lower the cost of money to stimulate consumption.
Due to the restrictive monetary policy, spending is being curtailed, and the economy is slowing down due to the high cost of money.
He says that the same thing will happen to us, but it won't automatically spill over to our market; it will follow the inflation in Serbia.
He continues: "The National Bank of Serbia will also not lower interest rates until inflation reaches 2%."
This will happen more slowly than in the EU, and a decrease in interest rates is expected in the first half of 2025, after which mortgage rates will also be lower.
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