Portuguese house prices to fall by 2.1% by 2024 - CaixaBank

According to CaixaBank Research, the softening of the Portuguese real estate market is "turning out to be less pronounced than expected, at least in terms of house prices." However, the Spanish bank is not as optimistic about 2024 and predicts a 2.1% decline in house prices. Nevertheless, it believes it will be a "mild slowdown".

Research

The study notes that the number of home sales fell 9% on a like-for-like basis in the four quarters through Q1 2023, with a more significant decline in existing home sales (-10.9%) compared to new construction (+0.1%).

"While sales are down from the record levels seen in 2022 (167.9k), they are all''another 3% above the 2019 level (154.8 thousand). However, looking only at figures for Q1 2023, sales in this period (34.4 thousand) are down 20.8% compared to the same period in 2022, with declines in both existing and new homes (-23.4% and -8.3% respectively)," the study said.

Housing supply also "continues to be constrained to meet housing needs given demographic trends" and suffers from the impact of "high construction costs," the document emphasizes.

Decreasing prices and slowing demand in 2024

The Spanish bank reminds that there is a natural "time lag between the action of monetary policy and its impact on the economy," and in the case of the real estate market this''The impact occurs in two ways.

'On the one hand, higher financing costs disincentivize a fraction of potential buyers with less credit availability, causing them to look for cheaper housing. On the other hand, index updates for variable interest rates are gradual, so the perceived effort by borrowers (as well as the potential decision to sell) is also gradual," the study explains, adding that the second half of the year will be important for assessing the impact of rising interest rates on the market.

CaixaBank has no doubt that 'demand resilience, a shortage of new housing and high construction costs will continue to support house prices, even in the face of soaring interest rates.''However, the outlook for 2024 is "not as optimistic".

The survey points to a 2.1% decline in house prices.

The Spanish bank nevertheless speaks of a "more moderate decline" and considers "unlikely" a significant price correction like the one seen in 2011-2013, "when the country was receiving financial aid and the debt burden of families was higher".