Dubai Real Estate Holds Firm Amid Attacks as AED 23.97bn in Deals Are Registered

Practical guidance for buyers and investors

From our on-the-ground coverage and conversations with brokers, here is what buyers and investors should consider now:

• For cash buyers looking for value: watch projects where builders are offering explicit cash discounts, especially on off-plan stock. That is where immediate savings can be captured.
• For buyers needing financing: claimable savings such as the 4% DLD waiver and broker discounts can improve upfront affordability but check long-term payment schedules and completion risk.
• For occupiers: the rental market is a separate equation; short-term disruptions in demand do not necessarily translate into durable capital value changes for homes bought for use.
• For investors focused on yield: rental demand in core Dubai neighbourhoods remains supported by expatriate population flows, but yields compress in prime central areas.

We recommend these tactical steps:

• Obtain full breakdowns of incentives in writing, including exactly how a DLD waiver is applied and whether the developer is matching it with other offers.
• Insist on transparent payment schedules and completion guarantees when buying off-plan.
• Stress-test exit scenarios: how quickly can a property be re-let or re-sold if geopolitical risk causes a short-term dip in demand?

Risks to monitor over the next two months

Our view is that April and May will produce a clearer picture. The specific risks to track are:

• Whether transaction volumes rebound or remain subdued
• Whether incentives remain limited to waivers and payment plans or widen into headline price cuts
• Developer liquidity stress, especially among firms with large unsold off-plan inventory
• Extent to which high-value sales continue to reflect pre-conflict agreements rather than new demand

If volumes remain weak and incentives widen into headline discounts, that is a sign supply-demand balance is shifting. That, in turn, creates different playbooks for buyers and sellers.

Market segments behaving differently

Not all parts of the Dubai property market react the same way. We separate the market into three broad segments:

• Ultra-prime: continues to see isolated, very high-ticket deals. These trades are driven by HNW buyers and often agreed privately prior to registration. Example: AED 422 million apartment in Jumeirah Second.
• Prime and mainstream off-plan: developers maintain base prices but use incentives such as payment plan stretches and DLD waivers. Some cash discounts are appearing where inventory pressure exists.
• Secondary and rental-led: more sensitive to short-term sentiment, but underpinned by expat demand and residency-linked moves.

Knowing which segment you target will determine negotiation leverage. For a mainstream off-plan purchase, a buyer can extract waivers and extended plans. For an ultra-prime trophy asset, negotiation often revolves around bespoke terms and confidentiality rather than public discounts.

What this means for portfolio strategy

For investors with diversified exposure to UAE real estate, our practical read is:

• Short-term traders should be cautious. Volatility is likely while the geopolitical situation evolves and sentiment recalibrates.
• Long-term holders with income goals should focus on rental-generating assets in established neighbourhoods and ensure financing costs are locked in.
• Opportunistic buyers with liquidity can target developers offering cash discounts on off-plan stock but should perform tight due diligence on delivery timelines and developer track records.

We stress that market timing here is about the trade-off between potential headline discounts and the risk that deeper markdowns could appear if incentives fail to restore demand.

Quotes from the market

• Amit Goenka, managing director of Nisus Finance: “It is hard to renege on deals agreed to earlier owing to the cost involved. A clearer picture on the real estate market will emerge in April or May, regarding the number of transactions and deal value.”
• Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Group: “Developers have rightly chosen to maintain price stability while offering waivers and extended payment plans. A 4% DLD waiver on an AED 5 million property is a meaningful deal sweetener, but in no way signals a change in prices.”
• Faisal Durrani, partner and head of Middle East research at Knight Frank: “While the conflict tested the confidence of the expat population, UAE’s strong fundamentals continue to support the market.”

We include these voices because they reflect the current industry consensus: action, but cautious action.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Dubai still safe to buy property right now?

The market has not seen systemic price collapse. AED 23.97 billion in deals have been logged since the conflict began and developers are offering incentives rather than cutting base prices. That said, buyers should be aware of short-term volatility and verify delivery timelines on off-plan purchases.

Will developers reduce asking prices?

At present, most developers are keeping base prices intact and offering concessions such as the 4% DLD waiver, brokerage discounts and extended payment plans. Some are offering cash discounts where inventory pressure is high. A shift to widespread headline price cuts would likely follow if transaction volumes remain weak in the coming weeks.

Are these high-value sales a sign of new demand?

Many marquee sales were agreed before the conflict and are only being registered now, so headline high-value deals are not necessarily proof of renewed demand. They do show, however, that liquidity among ultra-high-net-worth buyers remains.

How important are Indian buyers to the market?

Very important. Indian buyers accounted for 23% of foreign residential transactions in 2025, up from 12% in 2023. Their participation shapes demand, especially for certain neighbourhoods and for specific asset types.

Our assessment is that Dubai’s property market is coping; incentives are being used to keep transactions moving without undermining headline prices. The clearest next signal will be transaction volumes and whether incentives stay limited to waivers and payment plans or widen into broad price discounts. Expect a more definitive reading in April and May when registered deals will reflect post-conflict negotiations rather than pre-agreed contracts.