Emaar's Alabbar: Dubai Won't See a 15% Price Collapse as 210,000 Units Arrive

Why this interview matters to anyone watching the real estate UAE market

If you follow the real estate UAE market, this is not a routine soundbite. In a CNBC interview Mohamed Alabbar, the founder of Emaar, pushed back hard against a widely cited forecast that Dubai property prices could fall by 15% in 2025–26. His view matters because Emaar is one of the largest developers in the city and because the forecast hinges on a surge of new supply: around 210,000 units expected to be delivered in 2026–2027, roughly double the output of the previous three years.

This is a classic moment when market narratives collide: a ratings agency warning about double-digit declines versus a leading developer arguing the market is resilient and that the coming supply will actually stabilise prices. I want to unpack both sides and give buyers and investors practical guidance on what to watch next.

What Mohamed Alabbar actually said — and why he’s confident

Alabbar called a potential 15% correction “very unrealistic.” He made three linked points:

• Demand remains strong and sellers are holding firm on prices.
• Short-lived shocks — such as the current US–Israel–Iran war — can shake consumer confidence “a little bit,” but government policy in the UAE tends to restore confidence quickly.
• The expected supply wave in 2026–2027 will be beneficial: it can temper rapid price rises, keep rents from becoming unaffordable, and support sustainable, long-term market development.

He also said that, at current price levels, developers are earning enough and there is no need to push prices higher. He stated he wants rental and sales levels to stay where they are because excessive price inflation is “against economic progress,” adding that real estate values contribute about 50%–52% towards measured inflation — a striking comment about the sector’s macro role.

Those comments are practical and strategic. As a developer and market participant Alabbar has incentives to defend valuations, but he is also pointing at policy priorities: affordability for workers and investors, and a more balanced supply-demand profile over the medium term.

What Fitch and other skeptics are warning about

Ratings agency Fitch has said Dubai prices could fall by double digits in the second half of 2025 and in 2026. Their reasoning is straightforward: a delivery pipeline that doubles recent completions combined with a possible cooling in demand could lead to oversupply and price weakness.

Fitch estimated that with the planned deliveries — about 210,000 units — any price drop could be limited to no more than 15%. That phrasing is important: it is not a forecast of guaranteed decline but a risk scenario anchored to that supply surge.

Key variables that support the cautionary view:

• Rapid increase in completions can outpace absorption, especially if investor appetite softens.
• Global tightening in financial conditions and higher mortgage rates can reduce buying power for expatriate and international buyers.
• Geopolitical uncertainty may intermittently dent demand from some buyer cohorts.

The Fitch view is a warning that markets with fast-rising supply can correct; it does not automatically mean that correction will happen, but it raises the odds enough for investors to plan for downside scenarios.

How the incoming supply matters — not just quantity but timing and type

Supply is rarely neutral. The effect of 210,000 new units depends on several dimensions:

• Location: New units in peripheral or lower-demand submarkets have a different impact to additions in prime central areas.
• Product mix: Luxury towers, mid-market apartments, and affordable family housing meet very different demand pools.
• Timing and absorption: Even with strong underlying demand, a glut of simultaneous completions creates short-term pricing pressure.

Alabbar argues that this supply will help cool prices and rents rather than trigger a crash. That is plausible if the new stock matches where demand is growing — for example, family-sized units for long-term residents or quality mid-market apartments for workers and young professionals. But if a substantial share is speculative luxury product aimed at short-term investors, the absorption risk rises.

For investors and buyers the practical implications are:

• More choice can improve bargaining power, especially for ready or near-complete units.
• Rental yields can compress if too much comparable stock hits the market at once.
• Long-hold investors who focus on income may find short-run volatility offers buying opportunities.

What this actually means for buyers, investors and renters

Here is our analysis, grounded in Alabbar’s comments and the Fitch risk scenario, on what different market participants should do.

Buyers (owner-occupiers):

• If you need a home in Dubai for work or personal reasons, leaning into quality and location is still sensible. Supply growth should moderate price escalation and could give you more choice without forcing buyers into desperation purchases.
• Consider units that match your intended length of stay. If you plan to hold five years or longer, periodic price swings matter less than neighbourhood fundamentals.

Investors (rental-focused):

• Expect potential yield compression if supply floods the rental market. That means you should stress-test your purchase using conservative rent projections.
• Prioritise assets with strong rent demand — family apartments near schools, units in established business districts, or properties with good connectivity.

Speculators and short-term traders:

• The coming supply wave increases execution risk for those banking on rapid price appreciation. Short-term flips are riskier when many completions occur around the same period.

Developers and industry watchers:

• Alabbar’s public support for more supply is a signal that leading developers see profit at current prices and prefer volume balance over further price inflation.
• Watch delivery schedules and developer track records for on-time completions — delays change the absorption timeline.

Practical due diligence checklist for anyone buying in Dubai now

• Confirm the delivery schedule: Is the unit ready, off-plan but with a completion date, or dependent on a long construction timetable?
• Check developer track record: completion rates, quality, and after-sales service history.
• Run rental-stress tests: model yields with conservative vacancy and rent-adjustment assumptions.
• Location analysis: evaluate transport links, schools, and employment nodes rather than relying on headline price trends.
• Exit strategy: define your minimum acceptable hold period and worst-case price outcome.

If you want a quick decision matrix: ready units in good locations suit tenants and short-term investors; off-plan purchases are better for disciplined long-term investors who understand developer risk and construction timelines.

Risks and red flags the market cannot ignore

Alabbar’s confidence does not eliminate real risks. Key ones to watch:

• Geopolitical shocks: He acknowledged consumer confidence can be “shaken little bit.” Repeated or prolonged shocks could affect international buyers.
• Concentration of supply: If the 210,000 units are concentrated in a few submarkets, local oversupply can depress values even if the wider market holds up.
• Financing conditions: Global interest-rate changes affect mortgage costs for residents and international buyers, changing affordability.
• Developer leverage and cancellations: If developers are over-levered, delivery delays or cancellations could ripple through the market.

Balance Alabbar’s optimism with these guardrails.