Emaar’s CEO Says UAE Property Values Are Holding — Here’s What Investors Must Know

Emaar flags stability as off‑plan payments dip — what that means for real estate UAE

Mohamed Alabbar, Managing Director of Emaar Properties, has delivered a clear message: the real estate UAE sector is holding its ground. In comments to Sky News Arabia he said property values continue to hold steady, capital is still flowing into the market, and cash flows for developers remain healthy despite recent volatility in share prices. That is a concise statement, but it hides a mix of assurance and caution that every buyer and investor should unpack.

In our analysis, Alabbar’s remarks are useful because they combine hard data with operational insight: he referenced a shift in collection rates from 100% to approximately 85%, and he pointed to footfall at Dubai Mall—now about 180,000 visitors a day versus a pre-shock peak of 250,000 and around 200,000 during Ramadan—as a practical indicator of demand. He also said lower tourism activity has been temporary and that the UAE’s economy and institutions have the capacity to weather shocks. We agree the numbers matter; they give a sense of liquidity, buyer behaviour, and recovery speed.

Quick takeaways up front

• Collection rates from buyers have fallen from 100% to roughly 85%, according to Alabbar.
• Daily footfall at Dubai Mall is about 180,000 now, versus roughly 250,000 at peak and 200,000 during Ramadan in previous periods.
• Emaar reports that cash flows for developers—installments, contractor settlements, bank repayments—are healthy.
• Alabbar expects an acceleration in momentum once the current crisis ends.

What Alabbar’s statements mean for the UAE property market

Alabbar’s comments are meaningful for three reasons. First, he is the head of one of the UAE’s largest developers, so his view reflects the operating reality for major market participants. Second, he cited concrete metrics rather than vague platitudes. Third, his assessment mixes reassurance with a realistic admission that some short-term metrics have softened.

From a market point of view, the message is: prices are holding, but you should watch liquidity and payment behaviour. Here is how we read the implications.

Price stability and demand

If property values are steady while collection rates fall to about 85%, that suggests demand is still present, but payment patterns have slowed. For buyers that can pay in cash or those on shorter payment schedules, the market is likely to remain competitive. For those relying on longer-term financing or stretched installment plans, there is more risk.

Cash flow and developer balance sheets

Alabbar flagged that developers have cash flows to cover a 15% gap between past collection norms and current receipts. That is significant. Established developers, with years of accumulated profits and access to credit, can absorb temporary shortfalls and continue projects. Smaller or highly leveraged developers will face more pressure.

Footfall as a real-time indicator

Retail traffic at a major mall is a blunt but powerful metric. 180,000 daily visitors at Dubai Mall is a strong level of activity that supports retail rents, hotel occupancies, and short-term rental demand. If retail and tourism indicators are trending back toward historical averages, the wider property market has a better chance to hold values.

How developer cash flow mechanics affect off‑plan buyers and investors

Understanding cash flow in an off‑plan market is essential. Emaar’s comment that installment payments and contractual settlements remain positive is a signal that project completion risk is lower than in a market where collections dry up.

Key components of developer cash flow include:

• Pre‑sales and installments from off‑plan buyers, which fund construction and reduce reliance on external borrowing.
• Contractor payments, which reflect project progress and on-time delivery.
• Repayments to banks and credit lines, which test a developer’s access to liquidity.

Alabbar said these flows are “healthy and positive.” For investors, that translates into a lower probability of project delays or cancellations among established developers. But the 15% dip in collection rates matters: it is a reminder that financing costs, working capital needs, and credit access are all active risks.

Practical advice for buyers and investors in the UAE property market

I will be blunt: you should not treat a remark about stability as permission to be complacent. Here is how we recommend approaching the market now.

• Verify developer strength
  • Check the developer’s balance sheet where possible; look for multi‑year profitability and access to credit.
  • Prefer developers with a track record of completing projects on time. Emaar is large and diversified; smaller developers can carry more execution risk.
• Review payment plans and escrow safeguards
  • Confirm that off‑plan payments are held in escrow or trust accounts set up for the project. That reduces your risk if a developer runs into trouble.
• Understand your exit options
  • Liquidity can tighten in a stress period. Know whether you can resell off‑plan units and the historical saleability of the micro‑market.
• Factor tourism and retail footfall into yield expectations
  • Short‑term rental and retail demand depend on tourism. With footfall at Dubai Mall currently at about 180,000 a day, retail and hospitality demand is active, but tourism can be cyclical.
• Stress‑test financing
  • If you are using leverage, model scenarios where collection rates fall or interest rates rise. That 15% gap Alabbar mentioned is a real buffer that developers are using; individual buyers should have their own buffers.

Who benefits and who should be cautious

Some buyer segments are better positioned than others.

• Likely beneficiaries

  • Cash buyers: They can pick up units when competition eases and are insulated from collection swings.
  • Buyers of completed inventory: Lower execution risk and immediate rental opportunities.
  • Investors in prime locations: Central districts and established communities have stronger resilience.

• Who should be cautious

  • Speculative off‑plan investors who rely on rapid capital appreciation to flip units.
  • Buyers of projects by lesser‑known developers without audited track records.
  • Highly leveraged investors who cannot withstand short-term liquidity stress.

Macroeconomic context and tourism impact

Alabbar acknowledged a temporary impact on tourism and said it is normal for sectors to be affected for months. He argued the UAE’s economy is designed for the long term and can withstand shocks. That claim is consistent with past experience: the UAE has weathered cyclical tourism downturns before and has mechanisms to restore momentum.

For investors, this means:

• Short‑term yields that rely on tourist flows may be volatile.
• Long‑term investors who focus on fundamentals—location, builder quality, tenant mix—should be better positioned.

We should be honest: tourism is a significant demand driver for Dubai property, especially for short‑stay rentals and hospitality‑adjacent assets.