Real estate: China down, US up. Italy reveals new perspectives.

The real estate market continues to move forward. Since January this year, the industry has grown by 9.2 billion euros compared to last year, with a total collection of 45.2 billion euros. Italy and the European Union are leading the race for mass-market real estate, but competition from the United States has not abated. On the other hand, China is experiencing a serious real estate crisis, then with the destruction of Evergrande and then Country Garden. Having examined our country, analysts conclude that the real estate market has closed a period of twenty years. In the first decade of the 2000s, prices rose 30% but fell sharply after the bursting of the sub-prime bubble. After the Covid-19 pandemic, access to credit and the level of interest''rates have become the two main drivers of industry growth.

Real estate data shows that in 2023, cash inventory will decrease by 12% and access to credit will decrease by 40%. At the same time, mortgage applications and average mortgage interest rates will increase by 5%. Between December 2022 and June 2023, inflation will have expended 71 billion euros. However, experts predict a future market that will be characterized by greater reactivity and volatility than in the past. This means that it will be increasingly dependent on external factors such as monetary policy and European regulations. Regulations that will require a significant financial outlay on a national estate that is lagging far behind in terms of energy efficiency. Objectives''The European Union's targets include achieving level "E" by 2030 and eliminating pollutant emissions by 2050. Considering that Italian assets amount to, according to the Institute of Statistics (Istat):

• Class "A": 678,000 units, 5%
• Class "B": 288,000 units, 2%
• Class "C": 523,000 units, 4%
• Class "D": 1,269,000 units, 10%
• Class "E": 2,119,000 units, 17%
• "F" Class: 3,158,000 units, 25%
• Grade "G": 4,465,000 units, 36%

The most important challenge will be to upgrade and improve the energy efficiency of buildings, according to analysts, this is one of the key mechanisms that can drive demand and price growth in the market. Real estate crowdfunding will play a key role in this game, with the ability to raise funds''from different investors for one or more properties. Other major elements to watch for in the residential real estate market are demographic changes, population redistribution across the area, and migration flows. The global and Texas market is recovering, but prices are still low. In August, listings increased 1.8% from the previous month. A result driven by a 7.4% increase in sales, according to RE/MAX's USA Market Housing Report. However, average prices remained the same as in July: $425,000.

The European real estate market will end the year with negative results, despite a recovery in recent months. The five largest countries in the European Union will have a total transaction volume of around €900 billion, down 1.2% from 2022, according to European Forecast 2024. Italy, however, shows growth of 3.6% compared to 2022''year, thanks to the residential and logistics sectors, which pushed turnover up to 144 billion euros. While the hotel and commercial sectors show a decline. Future growth will be 2%, reaching 150 billion euros, according to forecasts. The residential market, on the contrary, should decline slightly, but prices will rise slightly. Chinese real estate developers have often faced financial problems in recent years. The latest - after Evergrande - is Country Garden, the industry's largest company by sales volume, which has deferred payments on its foreign securities. Consumer and international investor anxiety from weakening companies is affecting trade, prices and currencies. Consequently, sales from January through August were down 30 percent from''the same period in 2019. In addition, land purchases have fallen by 90%. Worrying figures as a fifth of local authority spending is funded by income from the sale of these plots.

© Article from the November 1, 2023 issue of Bollettino magazine. Subscribe!