Why did the right win in Portugal and what are the consequences?

Portugal: The fall of another democratic government. With increasing inequality in the West, the Left Bloc government was satisfied and watched inequality and frustration grow, opening the way for neo-fascism. The result is a new warning for Brazil from Lula. Democratic Alliance backers react to the first election results in Portugal.

Photo: Pedro Nunes/Reuters. Antonio Martins, Outras Palavras.

Some lesions are particularly acute.

Next April, Portugal will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution under a right-wing coalition government and with intense pressure on it from a neo-Zalarist party. For nine years, like Spain, it has been a small oasis against the backdrop of a Europe where ultra-capitalist and xenophobic forces have been gaining power. Yesterday that experiment was cut short.

In early parliamentary elections, the Left Alliance (Left Center) and a coalition called the Democratic Alliance (Right) were virtually tied. Each won about 30 percent of the vote and 80 seats in parliament. But in third place was the far-right Chega party, which received more than 1 million votes (18%) and increased its faction, now with 48 MPs. Also the Left Bloc (BE) and the Union for Popular Democracy (which includes the Communist Party-PCP) lost ground with less than 5% of the vote, leaving them with 5 and 4 seats respectively.

From Tuesday (12.03), President Marcelo Rebelo de Souza will meet with party leaders and "appoint" the future Prime Minister, entrusting him with the formation of the new government. All indications are that it will be the leader of the Right Bloc. Either in a government without an absolute majority or - much worse - in alliance with Chega.

The rise and fall of Portuguese progressivism since 2015

are the result of an incomplete attempt to resist neoliberal policies. As long as this struggle continued, it led to electoral victories and enthusiasm. From the moment it weakened, it opened the way for far-right forces, which around the world are exploiting the crisis of democracy, to infiltrate Portugal. There are therefore clear similarities with Brazil - where it remains to be seen whether Lula's government will be able to significantly improve the living conditions of the majority or will be stuck in search of the "fiscal adjustment" desired by the financial markets and carried out by the Ministry of Finance.

Few countries suffered from the "cuts" imposed by the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis. Banks were rescued, but public spending was cut substantially and the welfare state was destroyed. Attacks on social rights led to youth unemployment and especially precarious employment. This triggered two impressive spontaneous rallies by small activist groups. In March 2011, the "Generation in Stalemate" action drew 300,000 people on the streets of Lisbon and Porto. In September 2012, called by the action "Total No Troika", more than a million people took to the streets of various cities to the sound of the song "Grandola Vila Morena", which made the sign of the beginning of the Nail Revolution in 1974. But it took three years before the cry against the "cuts" echoed through the political system. It happened by accident. The Socialists, the Left Bloc and the Communists stood separately and with different programs in the 2015 parliamentary elections. A right-wing coalition ruled, but it failed to form a majority in Parliament. The left tried to negotiate with them, but failed and was attracted by another opportunity: cooperation with the Left Bloc and the CPP, forming a government. This coalition was unexpected. Such a unit between the social democratic and Marxist left tradition was scarce in Portugal and the rest of Europe. During a debate in Parliament, opposition MPs pejoratively called this possibility "Gueringonsun".

For some time it did make real changes in Portuguese politics. There was an increase in wages above inflation (especially minimum wages), a restoration of pensions, some regulation and protection of precarious work, and an improvement in public health. The privatization process was suspended, and in a symbolic case (in the case of TAP) it was abolished. New social movements manifested in the new environment, notably anti-racist and feminist movements, which were later interrupted by the pandemic. But the harsh forces of globalization interrupted this short-lived Portuguese spring. The European Union blocked public investment and a more effective restoration of social services. Major retrograde changes in labor laws were never reversed. Under government pressure, the PS submitted to the dictates of Brussels.

In 2019, when new parliamentary elections were held, there was no longer a mood for a repeat of Geringonsu. The Socialists ruled alone, with sporadic support from the Left Bloc. In 2022, serious disagreements over the budget divided the three parties and forced the creation of early elections, which again led to a one-man PS government. At that time, Chega had already emerged, a product of the far-right wave that entered Portugal in the wake of Trump. In Portugal, he is characterized by racism and, especially, xenophobia. In a country where public services have never recovered, the party sees immigrants (including Brazilians, victims of increasing violence) as a scapegoat to divert discussion of new policies.

The last years of socialist rule, led by Prime Minister António Costa, have been sad, according to Marxist economist Michael Roberts (The Next Recession). Like today in Brazil, the government believed in large private capital as the driving force of the economy. Deregulatory measures were aimed at attracting foreign investments, especially in the real estate market and tourism waves, seeing Lisbon as a hot destination. Instead of solving the problem, money became a major part of it, Roberts continues. In the central areas of cities, thousands of Portuguese have been evicted from their rented apartments, which are now offered to foreign tourists in commercial rentals. There are 48,000 such properties in Lisbon and 750,000 across the country. Recent governments have done nothing to address this situation, to restore public health (weakened by the pandemic), or to support the recovery of workers' purchasing power. The average salary in Portugal is the sixth lowest among 38 OECD countries, but the country has seen the largest increase in real estate prices in the group.

The use of xenophobia has become a complete solution for Chega. Antonio Costa resigned on November 7 of last year in a case that has still not been well explained. As part of an operation investigating alleged corruption related to investments in energy transformation, the prosecutor's office searched his office. The Prime Minister denied "committing any illegal or unacceptable actions." However, it is strange that he stated that "continuing in his position had become impossible" - and he left his post, even though no law or regulation required him to do so. A few days later, the same prosecutor's office announced that the investigation was triggered by a mix-up between the Prime Minister and his namesake...

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a conservative, immediately accepted the resignation. He could have appointed a new prime minister, but he preferred to call for new elections. They resulted in another bitter outcome. However, they show that in the West, democratic forces, especially the left, need to change course to avoid being overwhelmed by the wave of the far-right.