Why the White House Kosovo-Serbia deal could be dangerous | Brookings

Editor's Note: The prospect of talks between Serbian Presidents Vucic and Kosovo's Thaci at the White House, regardless of parallel efforts by the European Union, further underscores the poor state of transatlantic relations and the risks of a disastrous outcome, all likely part of President Trump's pursuit of an impressive spectacle in the Rose Garden, argues Molly Montgomery.

This was published by The Atlantic Council.

Last week's announcement of White House talks between the two sides of a long-running international conflict should have been cause for rejoicing, especially given the expectation that, if all goes according to plan, such talks are usually accompanied by a Rose Garden ceremony cementing some sort of agreement between the parties. However, the announcement has caused alarm among many observers of the Western Balkans, and justifiably so. The reasons for skepticism about the planned talks are many.

These talks undermine the long-term Dialogue mediated by the European Union between Belgrade and Pristina. The EU intends to resume this Dialogue in the near future under the leadership of its new Special Representative for the region, former Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajčák.

That Washington and Brussels may soon be holding parallel talks is a clear indication of the sad state of U.S.-European relations and the complete absence of transatlantic cooperation, a necessary component for progress in the Western Balkans since the 1990s.

Moreover, there seems to be a lack of coordination between Special Reconciliation Representative Richard Grenell, former U.S. ambassador to Germany, and U.S. experts in or on the region.

Even more worrisome are rumors of a possible land swap as part of such an agreement (which Grenell continues to deny). This only reinforces these concerns. Although the Trump administration and the EU have occasionally flirted with the idea of territorial swaps over the past three years, experts on both sides of the Atlantic fear the consequences of such an agreement in a region where nationalists regularly demand separatism or unification with ethnic compatriots.

Even if Pandora's Box is closed, implementation of such an agreement would almost certainly lead to actual ethnic cleansing, heightened tensions, and the possibility of renewed violence. There is no evidence of any planning for complex but important implementation issues on the part of the Trump administration.

Perhaps in an effort to lower expectations, Grenell promised that the sides would discuss the economy first. If so, with all luck, there could still be a positive outcome after the summit - a Balkanized version of China's promises to buy more soybeans, the Rose Garden spectacle that Trump and Grenell so desperately need, and no lasting damage to the stability of the region. I hope for the best....