The complete history of housing bubbles in the US market since1800.
The last economic crash should not have come as a surprise to history enthusiasts. Reader and financial blogger Philip J. Anderson sent us an enlightening analysis of the history of real estate in the United States. "During the first144 years of real estate in the U.S., land sales and/or real estate construction almost consistently peaked every18 years," writes Anderson. "The most frightening economic downturns have always come before land speculation (the pursuit of economic rent), fueled by imprudent credit provided by banks."."
Let's start with the big picture: the US federal government began selling land in1800. Since then, there have been periods of booms and land speculation about every18 years. Let's go back to the first major boom-bust in1837.
As a result, banks have accumulated gold, silver, and cash for many years.
- Bank lending resumed after the gold rush of 1849, returning credit to an expansionary mode.
In the 1850s, another cycle of boom and bust began. Only the American Civil War was able to pull the economy out of its decline.
Note the spike in interest rates in 1857 and their unusually low level in the following years:
Once again, banks were accumulating their assets and rebuilding their base with gold and silver.
In 1873, another shake-up caused a four-year turbulence before hitting rock bottom. Interest rates remained below average during this time.
- And again in 1893, with a small recovery only five years later:
Accordingly, interest rates remained low for the rest of the 1890s.
The most memorable crash occurred in 1929, leading to the Great Depression. Bank loans and land prices, which were collateral, fell throughout the 1930s.
The recovery of the economy and the real estate cycle only occurred in the 1950s after the end of World War II. The lowest peak level of the stock market in 1974 was the next largest crash since then.
The next real estate cycle took place from 1974 to 1992, with the second half of the cycle being supported by the creation of credit and real estate collateral.
The lowest level of the stock market in 1991 became an absolute peak in 1992, and interest rates remained low until 1994.
And this trend continues: Here is the same chart for September 2011. Historical repetitions worth noting include half of the retracement of the entire movement after the crash, a strong recovery of the index following Federal Reserve intervention, and new historical highs in the Dow market.
Anderson notes at the end of the report that "if the markets drop below the lows of 2009, then this cycle is not over yet."
Speaking of the economic crash: John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Check out this fantastic presentation that has everything you need to know about the housing market and the reasons for its stabilization.
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