Portugal Shut the Property Door on the Golden Visa — The Program Surged Anyway

Portugal closed the property route — and the Golden Visa grew stronger

Portugal closed the real estate Portugal route to its Golden Visa in October 2023, yet the program posted its strongest year on record in 2024. That contradiction is the most important story for anyone watching the Portuguese property market, real estate investment flows, or planning a residency-by-investment move to EU soil.

I have tracked the Golden Visa since its launch in 2012 and watched how capital shaped neighbourhoods across Lisbon, Porto, and the Algarve. What I find striking now is how rapidly the program pivoted from buildings to balance sheets, and what that pivot means for buyers, developers, and fund investors.

How the Golden Visa reshaped Portugal’s property market (2012–2023)

When Portugal introduced the Autorização de Residência para Atividade de Investimento (ARI) in October 2012, the incentive was simple: invest in the country and gain a residence permit with light physical-stay requirements and a pathway to citizenship. The Golden Visa ran for more than a decade and left measurable marks on housing prices and city centres.

Key facts about the program’s real estate era:

• €7.3 billion in total investment flowed through the Golden Visa between 2012 and 2024.
• €6.45 billion (about 88%) of that total went into property.
• The program attracted roughly 17,700 main applicants and, including family members, more than 42,600 residents.
• At its peak the scheme issued over 1,500 permits to main applicants in a single year.

The money changed markets. By 2022, nonresident buyers accounted for more than 11% of home purchases in Lisbon. In some areas, average property values jumped 30% in two years. Rents rose, short-term tourist lets consumed supply, and young locals struggled to compete for city housing.

Those are the mechanics you can see on the ground: renovated historic flats marketed to foreign buyers, entire buildings converted into short-term rentals, and rising appraisal values that pushed first-time local buyers further from ownership.

Mais Habitação: the law that removed property as a qualifying route

Faced with rising housing prices and political pressure, Portugal enacted the Mais Habitação law in October 2023. The most consequential change was the removal of direct real estate purchases as a basis for Golden Visa residency. The government also excluded capital transfers and real-estate-linked funds from eligibility.

The new qualifying routes are now focused on capital that is meant to support productive economic activity and cultural preservation. These are the current main paths:

• Investment funds: minimum €500,000 into CMVM-regulated venture capital or private equity funds that invest at least 60% of capital inside Portugal.
• Cultural heritage: €250,000 to certified cultural or artistic projects (€200,000 in low-density areas).
• Scientific research: €500,000 into certified Portuguese research institutions or projects.
• Job creation: establishing or investing in a business that creates at least 10 jobs.

The regulatory design forces funds to put a majority of capital onshore. The intention is explicit: move foreign capital out of consumer real estate and toward startups, health, green energy, and other sectors with multiplier effects.

The unexpected outcome: record issuance in 2024

If you expected the program to collapse after removing the property route, the data says otherwise. According to AIMA’s reports and analysis compiled by Movingto.com, 2024 was the strongest year on record, with about 4,990 Golden Visa permits issued (main applicants and family members combined). That is a 72% increase from 2023.

Why did issuance spike?

• AIMA cleared a backlog of cases inherited from the former immigration agency SEF.
• New demand surged, particularly from American investors who now form the largest nationality cohort. In 2023, U.S. nationals received 567 permits — a 162.5% increase from the previous year.
• Family reunification rose sharply: 2,909 family members received permits in 2024, up 87% from 1,554 in 2023.

The behavioural takeaway is that applicants adjusted quickly. They moved from buying an apartment to buying into a regulated fund. According to Movingto.com’s client data, 96% of current applicants choose the fund route; 3% use cultural heritage and 2% scientific research. The job-creation path is marginal in application numbers.

Why funds became the dominant route — and what that means for investors

Funds won for several reasons. They are familiar structures for wealth managers and institutional investors, they typically come with a multi-year lock-up that meets residency program rules, and they remove the operational headache of managing overseas property.

If you are considering the funds route, here is what you need to know from a practical investor perspective:

• Minimum commitment is €500,000. Funds must be registered with the CMVM and commit at least 60% of capital to Portugal.
• Expect a lock-up period often aligned with the residency and citizenship timeline; many funds assume a five-year investment horizon.
• Perform standard private equity due diligence: review the fund prospectus, track record of managers, pipeline of Portuguese investments, and exit options.
• Assess sector exposure carefully: eligible funds target tech, renewable energy, healthcare, life sciences, and sustainable infrastructure.
• Plan for tax and legal advice in Portugal and your home jurisdiction. Residency creates cross-border tax and reporting implications.
• Processing times are long: AIMA’s current timelines are typically 12–24 months from application to initial permit.

I have seen prospective investors underestimate fund risk. A fund is not a guaranteed safe-haven like a fully tenanted apartment might feel. Returns depend on manager skill and local dealflow. That said, channeling capital into productive firms can create jobs, taxable income, and intellectual property in Portugal — outcomes the policy now prizes.

The paradox: housing prices kept rising after the reform

Cutting off the property route did not cool prices.