Sea level rise caused by climate change will flood $34 billion worth of real estate in the U.S. in just 30 years, studies show.

Rising sea levels could lead to the flooding of significant areas of coastal property valued at $34 billion over the next three decades, according to a new study. Under a standard 30-year mortgage, around 64,000 buildings and approximately 637,000 properties located along ocean coastlines and their waterways will be at risk. This information was presented in a report recently released by a nonprofit organization.Climate Central.

According to forecasts, by 2050, sea levels in different parts of the United States could rise by 20 to 60 centimeters, with more noticeable increases expected along the northern Gulf Coast and in the mid-Atlantic. As ocean levels rise, every extra unit of water will push further inland, leading to more severe flooding and increasing risks for real estate.

According to the latest climate data released in 2021, extreme weather events have been recorded, confirming that global warming continues with no visible signs of slowing down. The decline in tax revenues for local budgets will become a serious issue as flooding begins to engulf homes and land, which will also lead to a decrease in property market value. This was stated byDon Bain, an engineer and senior advisor at Climate Central. According to the analysis, losses could triple by 2100 in coastal counties, depending on whether the world can limit temperature rise.

During the study, data on tax assessments from 328 counties in the United States, as well as tide levels and heights, were analyzed. The following findings were identified in this assessment:

• More than 48,000 real estate properties could be completely underwater by 2050, primarily affecting Louisiana, Florida, and Texas.
• By 2100, nearly 300,000 buildings could be at least partially flooded.
• The value of buildings and land located below water level could rise to $108 billion, not including about 90 counties where tax assessment data could not be obtained.

Particularly vulnerable will be the parishes in Louisiana with low-lying lands, where soil subsidence exacerbates the effects of rising sea levels. Analysis shows that by 2050, about 8.7% of the state's total area could be underwater. Thirteen parishes are among the 20 counties with the largest areas at risk of flooding.

Other districts in five states will also influence the situation. For example, the districtHudsonIn New Jersey, more than 15% of its land is below the expected water level. It leads the country in the value of vulnerable real estate, with an estimated worth exceeding $2.4 billion. Among the 20 counties with the largest area potentially flooded by 2050 are: Middlesex in Virginia, Monroe in the Florida Keys, Jefferson in Texas, and Dare, Tyrrell, and Currituck counties in North Carolina.

Significant losses in land elevation will result in up to 4.4 million acres being below the line that marks the boundary between private and public property by 2050, and this number is expected to double by 2100. Most of this land—about 3.8 million acres—is concentrated in Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.

For the analysis, researchers used tide data for each state, including average low, high, and highest water levels. They calculated which properties might be at risk of flooding. Additionally, they assessed the loss of taxable value of properties that could potentially be affected by rising water levels, multiplying the value of each property by the share projected to be below the specified threshold.

The loss of taxable value can have a serious impact on the budgets of many cities and counties. According toA.R. Siders“If a municipality has no other sources of income and is completely dependent on property taxes, such a city loses its sustainability,” said the assistant professor at the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware.

Climate Central is one of many organizations striving to identify climate risks in the country. The need for such information is immense, as mortgage lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders try to assess what awaits them in the future and how it will impact their business operations. According to Bain, this is crucial for balancing the financial reports of governments, individuals, and companies.

“The impact of climate change is real,” assertsMark RuppFrom the Georgetown Climate Center. "It's already happening and even affecting business structures. How many mortgage lenders will want to issue loans for homes in flood risk areas if they don't believe they'll get their money back?" Rupp also points out how many insurance companies have exited the market in Florida or gone bankrupt. According to him, it is very important for local governments to receive support from state and federal entities for planning and preparing for this issue.

Don Bain emphasizes that the conclusions of the report are not meant to scare or deter people. He hopes that they will help citizens obtain information that will influence future decisions and encourage officials at various levels to start collaborating on the necessary laws and regulations. "It's not too late to change course," he says. "Addressing this issue is important, as it is a choice between better and worse outcomes."

Education and informing the public about upcoming challenges is of paramount importance so that everyone can take the necessary measures. "I am convinced that a bright and prosperous existence awaits us in the future, but only if we are united and informed," emphasizes Bain.