Forecasts of real estate sales and rentals through 2024 as reported by intermediaries.

Housing values in Portugal slowed last year, but will this trend continue in 2024? How will the real estate market, especially the residential segment, cope with the need to increase housing supply to solve the housing crisis? The answer to these questions is ambiguous, but the real estate intermediation companies interviewed by idealista/news are not giving up. They argue that major opportunities will emerge on the outskirts of big cities where new projects are being developed.

What should we expect from real estate intermediation in 2024? Key insights:

• Home prices stabilize and sales volumes increase? Caution is the cardinal rule.
• Farewell to the absolute majority? What can the next government do in favor of real estate?
• Are there opportunities in real estate brokerage? Which ones and where?
• A look at the outskirts of big cities where new projects are popping up.

"It is undeniable that the constraints imposed primarily by the international context have prevented 2023 from being a year of growth for the sector in general and for ERA in particular. Nevertheless, the sector has demonstrated its resilience and we anticipate the year will close with a slight decline from 2022, which was the best year in the company's history. For 2024, I see primarily a year of adjustment with house price changes continuing to rise, but at a more moderate rate. And naturally, due to the context we are in, there may be a decrease in demand, especially in the first half of the year," says Rui Torgal, CEO of ERA Portugal.

With regard to the number of transactions, the manager believes that the volume will remain around the same level as in 2023: "With the stabilization of interest rates and the projected decline from the beginning of the second half of the year, one of the drivers of transactions is eliminated. "

Luis Nunes, CEO of ComprarCasa, speaks of 2023 as "the year of inclusion and the adoption of a new paradigm." He believes that "the future will not involve negative interest rates and near-zero inflation" and that today's reality, marked by high guideline interest rates - high Euroborrow values - which directly affect the cost of home credit, "has led to a reduction in the number of transactions and, to a lesser extent, the volume of transactions".

"Prices continue to rise, but with resilience based on the most basic economic theory we know - price elasticity. We still have less supply than demand, which keeps average transaction prices stable and even rising," he adds, anticipating that "2024 will not be much different" from 2023 and "transaction volume will stabilize. "

Opportunities and challenges in the residential real estate market

From the perspective of Remax Portugal, Beatriz Rubio talks about 2023 as a year full of challenges and believes 2024 will be no exception: "Rising interest rates and inflation, lower demand and political instability have all characterized the year, to which have been added, in the last weeks [of last year], some uncertainties about future political decisions. "

The CEO of the real estate intermediary believes that "for 2024, prices and activity in the sector are expected to stabilize, given that in the first half of 2023 alone, home sales fell by more than 20% compared to the same period in 2022." She also recognizes that "we can generally speak of a slight decrease in prices, although not strong".

Alfredo Valente, CEO of iad Portugal, has no doubt that "2023 is marked by a crisis of lack of housing that meets the expectations and needs of families and an inversion of the growth trend in both transaction volume and prices" that the country experienced "from the exit of the last crisis until mid-2022".

The expert believes that the "boom" in the real estate market in recent years has occurred "primarily at the expense of existing properties, with investments in the redevelopment of major urban centers making a significant contribution to this process".

"Despite this growth, the pace of construction has not recovered, leading to higher prices," he adds, noting that unless there is a significant supply of new construction, prices will not come down. "In 2024, we are likely to see a trend towards price stabilization, but without significant change. Foreign demand will also remain strong as Portugal is still considered an attractive market for real estate investment," the expert said.