Sansiri Says Rising Costs Won’t Hit Under-Construction Projects — What Buyers in Thailand Need to Know

For investors and portfolio managers:

• Monitor the mix of launches: urban condos in Greater Bangkok will likely have higher liquidity, while provincial launches in Phuket depend on tourism and foreign buyer flows.
• Track presales and transfers monthly. Sansiri’s year-to-date presales of 5.9 billion baht and transfers of 3.0 billion baht are early indicators; momentum through the year will reveal whether the 41 billion baht presale target is achievable.
• Watch commodity and oil price trends closely. Sansiri expects manageable pressure over six months, but a prolonged oil spike could erode developer margins and compel repricing.

For lenders and analysts:

• Debt service and liquidity profiles matter. Sansiri highlights cash flow as the main defensive asset during crises. Banks and bond investors should stress-test portfolios for scenarios where transfers and presales slow unexpectedly.
• Contractor claims and change orders deserve scrutiny. Even with contractual price locks, claims can arise during construction, especially if subcontractors face material shortages.

Risks and caveats — why the picture is not risk-free

Sansiri is experienced: the company has navigated multiple crises and used inventory sales to shore up cash in prior downturns. Still, several real risks remain:

• Prolonged commodity or oil-price shocks. Sansiri’s buffer and contracts handle short-term movement, but sustained pressure beyond six months could increase construction costs for new launches and squeeze margins.
• Contractor renegotiation risk. Even where contracts exist, contractors may seek adjustments if their input costs surge; the degree to which Sansiri can negotiate will affect final costs.
• Market demand fluctuations. Presales are demand signals. If consumer sentiment deteriorates because of broader economic conditions, presales might slow and transfers could be delayed, pressuring cash flow.
• Geographic concentration risk. With 70% of condo launches in Greater Bangkok, the company exposes itself to urban cycle risk; conversely, heavy exposure in Phuket makes part of the portfolio sensitive to tourism and foreign buyer restrictions.

Weighing these factors, I find Sansiri’s short-term confidence reasonable but contingent on the short-lived nature of current global shocks. The company’s buffer and contractual practices reduce near-term cost exposure, but investors must monitor commodity trends and presale momentum.

Practical checklist for buyers and investors in Thailand real estate

If you are considering a transaction with Sansiri or another Thai developer, use this checklist to reduce risk:

• Confirm whether the unit is built, under construction, or presale. Costs and risk profiles differ.
• Request the project’s current presale and transfer figures; compare them with developer targets.
• Review the purchase contract for clauses related to price adjustments, delay penalties, and completion guarantees.
• Ask whether construction costs were locked in and what contingency buffer the developer maintains.
• Check the developer’s recent track record for project handovers and financial disclosures on cash flow.
• For investment purchases, model scenarios where construction costs rise by 1–5% and presales fall by 10–20% to test downside resilience.

How Sansiri’s experience shapes its approach

Sansiri argues experience matters. Management points to past crises when the company pivoted to inventory sales during the Covid lockdowns, which, while lowering margins, generated cash to acquire land and restart condo launches in 2023. That kind of operational flexibility is not a guarantee, but it is a pragmatic asset.

Their approach emphasizes liquidity and staged launches rather than a roll-up of unsold inventory. The modest presale target for 2026 — 41 billion baht, slightly below 2025 — suggests an effort to match launches to market absorption rather than oversupply.

Conclusion: measured confidence, conditional on short-term stability

Sansiri’s core argument is that existing projects are largely shielded from immediate cost shocks because of contractual price locks, advance material purchases, and a 1–2% buffer. The company’s pipeline — 33 projects worth 51 billion baht in 2026, including 16 condos at 26 billion baht — shows a deliberate balance between urban and provincial exposure.

For buyers, ready stock built at earlier cost levels (about 12 billion baht) is worth considering for shorter time-to-occupancy and possible value advantage. For investors, the critical signals will be monthly presales and transfers, and the trajectory of oil and transport costs. We advise a cautious posture: accept Sansiri’s short-term controls as credible, but plan for scenarios where commodity pressure extends beyond the six-month window the company mentions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will rising oil prices raise housing prices in Thailand?

Rising oil prices can push building costs higher because oil inputs affect raw materials and transport. Sansiri expects projects already under construction to face a limited impact of around 1–2%, thanks to contracts and buffers. New projects without locked prices could face larger increases if oil remains high over an extended period.

How much ready inventory does Sansiri have at older cost levels?

Sansiri reported about 12 billion baht worth of ready-to-move units that were built at earlier, lower cost levels.

What are Sansiri’s sales targets for 2026?

The developer targets total presales of 41 billion baht for the year (a 2% decline versus 41.7 billion baht in 2025) and projects total transfers of 39 billion baht, up 6% from 36.7 billion baht in 2025.

Should buyers prefer ready units over presales right now?

Ready units can reduce exposure to construction-cost inflation and delivery risk, but they may be priced at market levels reflecting older cost bases. Presales can offer lower upfront prices but carry the risk of construction delays and cost adjustments. Check contracts, developer cash flow, and current presale momentum before deciding.

Specific takeaway: Sansiri plans to launch 33 projects worth 51 billion baht in 2026 and maintains a 1–2% contingency buffer to absorb contractor cost increases, so monitor presales and oil-price trends closely when assessing risk.