In India, it is recommended to strengthen production to reap the benefits of the 'China plus one' strategy.
On the eve of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) annual conference meeting in Tamil Nadu, Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan highlighted China's slowing economy and low domestic consumption due to pandemic-induced savings habit and real estate crisis. He said India must step up its efforts to compete with Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Bangladesh to reap the benefits of the China-plus-one strategy. Lt. Gen. Narasimhan also noted that India ranks fifth in gaining benefits from this strategy. He emphasized the need to develop India's local manufacturing capabilities to take advantage of the China Plus One opportunity and to improve land, energy and infrastructure conditions to compete with already leading countries.
Looking at China's economy, Lt. Gen. Narasimhan said it has been known for about a decade that the Chinese economy would slow down and the country would not be able to sustain the double-digit growth that has characterized the past decades. "Covid has only accelerated this process," he said, noting that the big problem with the Chinese economy today is low domestic consumption. While India and China have similar populations, India's domestic consumption is much higher than that of China.
Asked what the industry should do to confront the changing geopolitical situation, Lt. Gen. Narasimhan said that companies should learn to anticipate trends in advance. He also noted that the world is becoming more "mini-lateral" and less "multi-lateral", with the formation of small groupings of countries such as "I2U2" (India, Israel, UAE, USA). He sees India's decision not to join the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a good one, as it would not have helped India. Lt. Gen. Narasimhan also pointed out that many countries are looking for alternatives to the existing systems such as the UN and the Bretton Woods institutions, the World Bank and the IMF, which is evident from the fact that about 30 countries have applied to join the BRICS bloc. Commenting on the comparison between the armed forces of India and China in case of a conflict, he assured that "we are fine, don't worry".
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