Why Dubai Owners Aren’t Selling: 85% Hold Firm as Off‑Plan Deals Surge

Dubai real estate stays calm while the world shakes

Dubai real estate is holding steady despite rising geopolitical tensions that have unsettled other global markets. Within the first months of 2026 the market has shown signs of discipline rather than panic. About 85% of landlords say they are not considering selling, an indicator that many owners still trust the city’s long-term case for demand and capital appreciation.

That figure signals conviction. Yet the market is shifting — buyer preferences, listing behaviour and short-term rental performance are all changing. Our analysis looks at what is happening now, why it matters for buyers and investors, and how to position for the next 12–36 months.

Why there is no panic selling

The headline story is simple: the Dubai property market has not seen a surge of distress sales. A few specific data points explain why.

• Listings have increased by around 5%, but industry observers say this is market churn rather than forced selling.
• Much of the added supply consists of previously listed properties that were re-listed after failing to transact the first time.
• A Bayut spokesperson noted buyer engagement dipped briefly but recovered to more than 80% of normal levels.

The practical meaning: owners are testing the market, not abandoning it. Re-listings indicate sellers adjusting price expectations or marketing strategy rather than offloading assets in distress. That pattern keeps price discovery orderly and helps maintain liquidity — buyers still exist, and transactions continue.

From where we sit, this is classic market pruning after a busy cycle: some stock rotates through the market, pricing aligns, and stronger listings attract the majority of buyer attention. The lack of a fire sale dynamic protects overall valuations and prevents panic contagion.

The big shift: off‑plan transactions dominate

Possibly the single most consequential change this year is the move toward off‑plan buying. According to market data, off‑plan transactions now account for 63% of deals.

Why are buyers choosing off‑plan?

• Expectation of long‑term ownership horizons: many purchasers want properties that complete in 2027 or later, betting on steady appreciation after volatility eases.
• Developers are offering structured payment plans and incentives that reduce near‑term cash outflow compared with buying ready stock.
• Some buyers see off‑plan as a hedge against short‑term rental weakness because their returns will rely on mid‑to‑long‑term rental markets.

Off‑plan dominance shifts the centre of gravity in the market. It changes cash‑flow timing, developer risk exposure and resale dynamics. For investors this matters in three ways:

1. Contract diligence becomes more important. You need clear completion dates, escrow protections and penalties for delays.
2. Financial planning must include the extended holding period before rental income starts — interest or opportunity costs are real.
3. Secondary resale liquidity may be limited while many units remain in construction and the market waits for handovers.

Developer selection is no longer just about brand. It is about balance sheet, completion track record and legal safeguards built into the purchase contract. We recommend verifying escrow compliance and requesting a completion performance history from the developer before committing.

Short‑term rentals: the pressure points

Short‑term rentals have been the most exposed segment in recent months. Occupancy and daily rates have declined, especially in areas that rely heavily on tourism. The immediate consequences are visible:

• Around 5% of short‑term landlords are considering selling at a discount because lower bookings have eroded expected yields.
• Operators in tourist‑facing zones report slower bookings and more erratic seasonality.

This matters for two types of investors:

• Owners who relied on high daily rates for strong yields will see compressed returns and may face negative cash flow if financing costs rise.
• Buyers looking for consistent rental income will find long‑let strategies (annual leases) more attractive for yield stability.

We see smart owners shifting strategy from short lets to medium‑ or long‑term leases until travel demand normalises. That can stabilise income but may reduce gross yields compared with peak short‑let performance.

Tenant behaviour and the rental market

Tenants are reacting rationally to price and uncertainty. Rather than chasing marginal savings by relocating, many are renewing leases. The trend shows up in two areas:

• Greater willingness to extend existing agreements rather than incur moving costs.
• Stronger scrutiny from tenants about total cost of occupancy — utilities, community fees and travel time are now part of the equation.

This creates some opportunities for landlords: lease renewals reduce turnover costs and allow calibrated rent increases. But there is risk too. If landlords push rents aggressively, renewals will fall and vacancy will rise. The lesson for owners: aim for measured increases aligned with local comparables instead of trying to extract premium yields in a more selective market.

Market liquidity and pricing — stability without complacency

Despite the shifts, pricing has been steady. The modest rise in listings has not triggered price declines across the board. Key facts:

• Property prices and rental rates are broadly stable at present.
• Listings growth of about 5% is consistent with normal market cycles and re‑entry of previously marketed stock.
• Buyer engagement found its footing quickly at over 80% of usual levels after a short pause.

Stability does not mean uniform outcomes. Micro‑markets differ. Some submarkets that are oversupplied or dependent on tourism are showing weaker rent growth and slower sales.