Turks Move Savings into Gold as 48.8% Inflation Expectation Keeps Property Demand Cooling

Inflation in Turkey is reshaping property decisions — and fast

The latest Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Household Expectation Survey for February 2026 shows why anyone watching the real estate Turkey market must pay attention now. With 12‑month inflation expectations at 48.81%, households are changing how they save and invest. That shift is visible in a clear movement away from real estate toward gold, and in rising anxiety about fuel, energy and rents.

We read the numbers as more than mood data; they are signals about where demand for housing, shops and land may head next, and what international and local buyers should expect when weighing acquisitions, rentals or portfolio rebalancing.

Key findings from the TCMB household survey

The survey covered 3,217 households and several headline measures that link directly to the property market and to investor behaviour:

• 12‑month inflation expectation: 48.81% (unchanged from January)
• Share who expect inflation to be higher in 12 months: 63.4% (up from 59.3% in January)
• Women expecting higher inflation: 52.2%
• Low‑income households expecting higher inflation: 50.9%
• Households choosing gold as main investment: 55.5% (up 2.7 percentage points in one month)
• Interest in buying houses, shops or land: 30.0% (down)
• Expected USD/TL rate in 12 months: 51.56 TL
• Sectors with highest past price rises: Food 41.1%
• Expectation of housing price increases (12 months): fell from 39.23% to 35.41%

These numbers combine to paint a picture of a population bracing for a prolonged high‑inflation environment while reconfiguring what assets they trust to hold value.

Why gold is winning and what that means for real estate

Gold jumping to 55.5% as the preferred investment is the clearest behavioural response. For most households, the choice of asset reflects liquidity needs, perceived safety and ease of transaction.

Why gold is preferred now:

• Liquidity: gold can be bought and sold quickly in cash, with no mortgage approval, closing costs or legal transfer processes.
• Familiarity: Turkish households have a long cultural history of holding gold, which becomes a go‑to when currency confidence weakens.
• Perception of protection: with 48.81% inflation expected, many households feel physical precious metal is a more direct hedge than property.

The shift away from property — interest in buying houses, shops or land at 30.0% — says the same story from the other side. Real estate is less attractive when:

• Prices are already high and financing is costly or uncertain.
• People expect general prices to keep rising, reducing the perceived immediate affordability.
• Short‑term liquidity needs rise: gold meets these needs; real estate does not.

As analysts and investors, we have to treat the gold surge as a signal about demand timing rather than a permanent defeat of property as an asset class. Real estate still offers rental income and long‑term capital preservation, but the market’s appetite has shifted for now.

What the cooling housing expectation (35.41%) really indicates

The survey shows a fall in the share of households expecting housing prices to rise — from 39.23% to 35.41%. That drop is modest but meaningful.

It can mean several things:

• The public expects a slowdown in the previous rapid price growth of residential and commercial property.
• Market momentum may be weakening, which could reduce speculative buying and price acceleration.
• Buyers who were timing the market for quick gains may step back, producing a short‑term softening in transaction activity.

For investors, a slowdown in expectations does not equal a crash. Instead, think of it as a change in the risk/reward calculation:

• For buy‑to‑let investors, slower capital appreciation increases the importance of net rental yields and expense control.
• For developers, reduced speculative demand may pressure off‑plan sales and compel project rescoping or price adjustments.
• For owner‑occupiers, there could be negotiation space in some segments where sellers need liquidity.

We expect that where rental demand remains strong — city centres, commuter corridors and established expat hubs — prices will show more resilience than in overbuilt or speculative suburbs.

Dollar expectations and currency risk: the 51.56 TL forecast matters

Households expect the US dollar to trade at 51.56 TL in 12 months. That expectation matters for property investors because domestic price setting, construction inputs and foreign demand are linked to currency dynamics.

Implications:

• Foreign buyers who earn or hold foreign currency may find Turkish real estate more attractive if prices stay linked to TL and the currency weakens relative to their home currency.
• Domestic buyers who borrow in TL face erosion of real incomes as inflation outpaces wage growth; mortgage demand can drop.
• Construction companies that import materials or equipment feel cost pressure, which can either push prices up or compress margins.

We advise investors to factor in exchange‑rate forecasts when modelling returns, and to stress‑test scenarios where the lira weakens further or stabilises faster than expected.

Practical guidance for buyers, investors and landlords

The survey gives us clues about which strategies are sensible in the current moment. Here are practical steps, based on the data and on market mechanics.

For cash investors considering property:

• Reassess the holding period. If you plan to hold long term (five‑plus years), property still has a role, but the near‑term return profile is different.
• Focus on rental yield and tenant quality rather than short‑term capital gains. Look for neighbourhoods with stable rental demand.
• Consider properties that have potential to command indexed rents or dollar/euro‑denominated leases if tenants are foreign or corporate.

For buyers who need financing:

• Avoid high leverage. With real incomes pressured by 48.81% inflation, mortgage stress risk is elevated.
• Shop for lenders who offer clear, fixed amortisation schedules and transparent rates; variable features can be risky when inflation is volatile.

For landlords and asset managers:

• Prepare for upward pressure on operating costs related to fuel and energy, which households flagged as major worries.
• Consider energy efficiency investments that lower running costs and make properties more attractive to cost‑sensitive tenants.
• If legally and commercially possible, use lease clauses that reflect inflation or currency changes.

For international buyers and expats:

• Use the expected USD/TL of 51.56 as one scenario in valuation models; run alternatives where the currency moves in either direction.
• Identify segments where demand is driven by real needs (student housing, medical tourism, logistics) rather than speculation.

Across the board, diversification matters: the TCMB survey shows households moving to gold for a reason, and we think a mixed approach of cash, liquid hedges and selective property exposure is defensible.

Risks investors must weigh now

The TCMB survey points to risks that should temper conviction:

• Inflation persistence: the headline expectation is 48.81%. If inflation remains elevated, real incomes will stay squeezed and domestic demand may weaken.
• Rising costs: households expect further increases in fuel, energy and rents, which can raise operating expenses for property owners.
• Liquidity preference: with more households preferring gold, transactional volumes in the housing market could stay low, making it harder to exit positions quickly.
• Sentiment shocks: public expectations are volatile; if sentiment flips, demand can move rapidly in either direction.

We do not see these risks as reasons to avoid property forever.