2024, the year of the black brick

If a house used to be considered an ideal investment property for Italians, today too many unknowns make it risky: Europe's green requirements, deceptive energy improvements, rental rules that protect debtor tenants more than owners ... The fall will be challenging for the real estate market, which is gearing up for a similarly troubled 2024. Brick may be going through the toughest period in its history.

From being the first place of investment for Italians, it has turned into a kind of curse for those who own it and want to buy it. The deep crisis in the industry is evidenced by falling real estate values, slowing transactions, and exponentially rising rental prices.''Normally a house would have to take advantage of periods of high inflation, as has happened in the past, to keep investing and saving. If, however, as is happening now, prices are falling, it means there is a loss of capital.

The European regulatory framework for energy classes has been dealt a decisive blow, leading to a worrying outlook for property owners. The EU directive is still at the center of a lively debate, but already the announcement has caused the market to plummet. Many are hoping that no agreement will be reached before the end of the legislation and that the new majority in the next European elections will be less radical about environmental policy. For now we are floating on the surface and at the next meeting'The 'European Institutions' (the so-called Trilogue, which involves the Commission, the Council and the Parliament), scheduled for October 6, will see whether anything will change in environment-related policy after Frans Timmermans' departure.

In brief, the European Green Homes Directive stipulates that all new buildings must be zero-emission from 2028 onwards. Residential buildings must be renovated to Class E by 2030 and Class D by 2033. The directive should come into force as early as 2025. A huge amount of money will be required for compliance. According to Scenari Immobiliari, €88.3 billion will be needed to bring 1.8 million buildings (15 percent of the total) up to code. In Italy, 74 percent of residential buildings (11 million) are in energy''class below (E, F, G) the standard set by the new regulations. Three million families will be affected, with an average cost of 35 thousand euros. InMilan, 3,200 buildings (7.4 percent) will have to be modernized at an average cost for a family of 64 thousand euros; inRome, 17,000 houses (12.4 percent) with an average cost of 55 thousand euros.

The regulations are not yet in force, and are already causing disastrous consequences. The research center Re/Max, one of the largest real estate companies in the world, found that in the first half of this year, the average discount for G-class homes is about two percent more than for A-class homes. In Lombardy, the number is closer to four percent, in Puglia it exceeds five percent, and in Veneto it is almost eight percent. This means that someone who buys a class G house in''Lombardy, can get a 4.1 percent discount, and in Veneto a 12.2 percent discount. This is because the buyer knows that he is likely to face high costs to comply with green regulations, and so he asks the owner to give him a discount. The latter, if he wants to get rid of a property that will soon become a big expense, is forced to sell it on the cheap.

Europe has lightened the burden of both. The process has only just begun.

If you add rising interest rates to the green regulations, the material has enough reason to take the plunge. This is evidenced by Scenari Immobiliari, which predicts a decline in transaction volume throughout 2023 of at least 7 percent. There's another factor that has pushed savings away from the real estate market, and that's the unresolved problem of debtors. To vacate an apartment from a tenant who does not pay rent, inMilan andRome it will take up to''two years. Obviously, owners prefer short-term leases to non-residents or expensive contracts with thousands of protective clauses. To speed up the judicial eviction procedure, Confedilizione president Giorgio Spaziani Testa has an idea: to allow not only bailiffs, but also the entire police force and private individuals such as security guards to participate. Spaziani Testa emphasizes that there are regular attempts to block evictions "such as the initiative of the Roman PD secretary Enzo Foschi, who asked the prefect to stop the process in August because of the heat and the cancellation of the civic income. As if the owners could wait, even if many of them live only on rental income. "

The result is that, at the time