60–80% of Dubai’s Stalled Property Deals Could Close Next Quarter, ANAROCK Says

Dubai on Hold: What ANAROCK’s Forecast Means for the real estate UAE market

Dubai's property market has a habit of surprising investors. According to Morgan Owen, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at ANAROCK Group, 60–80% of real estate deals currently on hold in Dubai may close in the next quarter, provided macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty eases within 4–8 weeks while local employment, credit availability and flight connectivity remain stable. For anyone tracking real estate UAE and Dubai housing prices, this is a forecast that demands attention.

This is not wishful thinking. Owen points to past cycles in Dubai where shocks produced deferrals rather than cancellations. We examine what that history means now, how buyers and investors should react, and the practical steps to manage risk and opportunity in the months ahead.

What ANAROCK is actually saying: the headline in plain language

• Probability: ANAROCK’s estimate is that 60–80% of deferred transactions could be completed next quarter if a set of local conditions hold and macro/geopolitical uncertainty resolves within 4–8 weeks.
• Conditions required: steady local employment, credit availability, and uninterrupted flight connectivity.
• Likely adjustments: some completed deals may feature re-pricing or restructuring of terms to reflect updated valuations and risk tolerances.
• Buyer composition: buyers of Indian origin make up about 10% of property sales in 2025, a sizable cohort whose behaviour can influence demand.

That combination of figures is important because it ties market mechanics (deferred deals) to definable local levers (jobs, lending, travel) rather than to vague sentiment alone. It also frames a short, testable window—4–8 weeks—during which investor expectations should be recalibrated.

Why so many deals are on hold, and why they often resume

When markets face geopolitical shocks or global financial strain, several dynamics push transactions into limbo:

• Buyers pause to reassess price and risk appetite.
• Lenders tighten criteria or slow approvals.
• Developers and sellers delay closings while they negotiate terms.
• International buyers face travel and visa hurdles that slow inspections and final sign-offs.

Owen’s assessment rests on a historical pattern we have seen in Dubai: crisis leads to deferment rather than widespread cancellation. Two recent examples are instructive:

• After the 2009 global financial crisis, the market did not implode into permanent inactivity. Recovery took several years and needed debt restructuring, regulatory changes and large-scale events to restore confidence.
• After the Covid‑19 pandemic, confidence and transactions rebounded within 12–18 months, helped by visa reforms, strong villa demand and attractive pricing. In some pockets, values rose by as much as 165% between 2020 and 2025.

What those episodes tell us is that Dubai’s real estate ecosystem is resilient because of factors that include flexible developer strategies, regulatory responsiveness and continued appeal to foreign buyers.

Structural strengths and the limits of resilience

We agree with ANAROCK that Dubai’s property market today is structurally stronger than in 2009. Specific supports include:

• Golden visa and residency reforms that increase long-term demand.
• Tax advantages compared with many alternatives for international capital.
• A steady stream of inward migration, which supports rental and purchase demand.
• Large public and private events such as Expo 2020 that catalysed investment and infrastructure.

Still, stronger does not mean immune. There are clear constraints and risks:

• Real economy shocks that hit employment can quickly reduce mortgage demand.
• Credit tightening by banks will delay or prevent closings even if buyers are willing.
• A prolonged rise in regional risk perception could shift some capital away from Dubai.

Owen flags this last point: if risk perception increases consistently, there may be a small but meaningful reallocation of capital from Dubai to India by NRIs, who accounted for roughly 10% of property sales in 2025. That is not a sudden flood; it is a measurable flow that could change buyer composition and demand in niche segments.

How repricing and restructuring will play out

If 60–80% of deferred deals go ahead next quarter, they will not all be on the original terms. Expect two broad outcomes:

1. Repricing. Sellers, developers or buyers will seek price adjustments to reflect new market information. This could mean:
   • Discounts on off-plan or secondary-market units to match current comparable transactions.
   • Price holds in prime assets where scarcity or quality supports valuation.
2. Restructuring. Parties will amend payment schedules, deposit requirements or financing terms. Common adjustments include:
   • Extended payment plans from developers to ease buyer cash flow.
   • Sellers offering rent-to-own or staged handovers to keep deals alive.

For investors, the implication is clear: the headline rate of deal closures matters less than the mix of assets that close and the terms used. An investor who buys on disciplined entry pricing and selects assets with strong cash-flow or end-user demand is more likely to succeed than someone who chases any dip.

What this means for buyers and investors — practical takeaways

We provide a pragmatic checklist for how different participants should react.

For buy-to-let investors:

• Reassess yield expectations with possible short-term repricing on purchase prices.
• Prioritise properties in high-demand submarkets—villas and family-oriented communities have shown resilience.
• Verify tenant demand and mid-term lease prospects before committing.

For owner-occupiers and NRIs:

• If travel and residency remain unchanged, expect more resales to re-enter the market, giving buyers choice.
• Consider negotiating flexible payment terms rather than focusing solely on headline price.

For offshore capital allocators and funds:

• Re-evaluate exposure to Dubai against Indian real estate allocations; NRIs are increasing allocations to India and could shift capital if regional risk perceptions remain elevated.
• Insist on stress-testing assumptions around credit tightening and a potential slowdown in expat inflows.

For developers and sellers:

• Prepare for renegotiation: offering adjusted payment plans can be a cheaper way to close transactions than price cuts.
• Maintain transparent communication with buyers and lenders to reduce the chance of cancellations.

The NRI factor: how Indian buyers influence demand

Indian-origin buyers are a major force in Dubai's property market. ANAROCK estimates they represent about 10% of sales in 2025. That matters for two reasons:

• NRIs often buy for a mix of return, tax efficiency and residency convenience.