Buyers Gain the Upper Hand: Record 47% Seller Surplus Rocks US Real Estate

Record seller surplus hands negotiating power to buyers

The real estate USA market flipped decisively toward people buying homes in December 2025, and the numbers are not subtle. There were 47.1% more home sellers than buyers that month, a gap of 631,535 listings, the largest imbalance recorded since Redfin began tracking this metric in 2013. That translates into a market where buyers who can afford to transact have clear leverage in price talks and contract terms.

We want to be clear: this is a buyer’s market only for those who can close. Many potential purchasers have retreated because of high mortgage costs and economic uncertainty. Still, when supply outstrips demand by nearly half again, the negotiating dynamic changes, and that has consequences for prices, developer plans, and local housing strategies.

The hard data: what changed in December

The December figures show a rapid widening of the supply/demand gap. Key facts from the Redfin-based analysis:

• Sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1% (or 631,535 more sellers than buyers).
• The number of active buyers fell 5.9% month over month to an estimated 1.34 million, a record low in data back to 2013.
• Active sellers declined 1.1% month over month to about 1.97 million, a much smaller retreat.
• On a year-over-year basis, buyers fell 11.8% while sellers rose 3.9%.
• National median home prices rose only 0.1% year over year, the slowest growth since June 2023.

Redfin’s methodology combines MLS active listings with proprietary estimates of how long it typically takes a buyer from first tour to closing, plus pending-sale counts. All figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. These are working estimates, but they reveal a sharp movement: buyer interest dropped quickly while supply came down only marginally.

Where the imbalance is strongest: Sun Belt versus Northeast and Midwest

The buyer’s markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt, where new construction boomed during and after the pandemic. The cities with the most extreme seller surpluses among the 50 largest metros included:

• Austin, TX: 128.4% more sellers than buyers
• Fort Lauderdale, FL: 125.1%
• Nashville, TN: 111.3%
• Miami, FL: 102.7%
• San Antonio, TX: 102.5%

By contrast, the only five seller’s markets were in the Northeast and Midwest. Those metros had more buyers than sellers, and prices are still rising faster there. The strongest seller’s market was Nassau County, NY, where there were 33.4% fewer sellers than buyers. Other seller-favored areas include Montgomery County, PA (-32.3%), Newark, NJ (-29.5%), Milwaukee (-26.1%), and New Brunswick, NJ (-19.3%).

Overall, 36 of the 50 most populous metros were buyer’s markets, nine were balanced and five were seller’s markets.

Why this shift happened: a supply and demand story with local roots

There are several forces behind the shift from seller edge to buyer edge. I see three that matter most:

• Heavy post-pandemic building in the South and West. Homebuilders ramped up in fast-growing Sun Belt metros to meet migration-driven demand. That added a lot of inventory. Where demand has softened, that inventory now puts downward pressure on prices.

• Fewer active buyers. The pool of ready-to-transact buyers shrank because of high mortgage rates, layoffs in some sectors, and broader economic and political uncertainty. Redfin’s estimate of active buyers hitting 1.34 million in December is a record low in the data series.

• Local cost pressures. In parts of Florida, for example, homeowners face rising insurance premiums and higher condo HOA fees; that discourages buyers and prompts some owners to exit. That helps explain why several Florida metros rank among the most lopsided buyer’s markets.

This is why you see the split: regions that built a lot of housing are now over-supplied relative to the current pool of buyers, while markets with constrained new construction in the Northeast and Midwest still have more buyers competing for fewer homes.

Price action and who is winning or losing

A practical way to measure who gains is to compare price changes across market types. Redfin’s data shows that in December:

• Home prices rose 4.9% year over year across the five seller’s markets.
• Prices rose 3.0% in balanced markets.
• Prices rose only 0.6% on average in buyer’s markets.

Some metros show sharp declines. Most notable is Dallas, where the median sale price dropped 7.6% year over year, the steepest decline among the 50 largest metros. Local agents point to a combination of high supply from recent construction and softening demand. One Dallas agent reported a seller taking a 10% loss relative to what they paid at the pandemic peak.

These price gaps tell a clear story: buyer’s markets grant leverage that slows price growth and in some places produces outright declines. Seller’s markets still reward owners with rising values.

What this means for buyers

If you are shopping for property or investing in US real estate, the current conditions deliver opportunities but also hazards. From our analysis and experience, here’s what matters:

• Leverage is real where sellers outnumber buyers by 10% or more. That means more choice for buyers and stronger bargaining power on price, contingencies, and closing timelines.
• Cash buyers and low-rate assumers will be the most successful. When inventory is abundant, sellers prefer offers that close quickly and with fewer contingencies.
• Don’t assume every discount is a bargain. In markets with rapid price declines, you need a sharp read on local fundamentals such as job trends, new permit activity, and insurance costs. A lower price in a shrinking market may not translate into future appreciation.
• Watch mortgage-rate moves.