Buyers Return: Propensity to Buy in Italy Quadruples to 8.5% in 2026

Italy's market in 2026: cautious growth and more active buyers

The real estate Italy market has nudged back into life this year, with buyer activity rising faster than many expected. Nomisma’s 2nd 2026 Property Market Observatory shows modest price growth, a bounce in transactions early in the year and a rental market under pressure. For anyone watching housing prices, rental yields or the chances to buy now, this report changes the short-term narrative: the market is improving, but not uniformly.

Quick snapshot

• Transactions forecast to rise by 0.3% in 2026 compared with 2025 (Nomisma’s projection).
• Sales volumes closed the first quarter with a robust +4.4%, though that pace is not expected to hold for the full year.
• Prices in the first half of 2026: +1.8% for existing properties, +1.4% for new-builds.
• Propensity to buy rose from 2.5% to 8.5% between H1 2025 and H1 2026.
• First-home purchases account for ~75% of transactions.
• Rental demand grew +12% over five years (about 296,000 households), pushing average rents +3.3% year-on-year in H1 2026.

These figures tell two stories at once: one of renewed buyer intent and one of structural constraint on the rental side. We examine both and offer practical lines of action for buyers, investors and renters.

What the numbers mean: modest price growth, rising buyer appetite

Nomisma’s data point to a market that has moved from stagnation to modest expansion. The 1.8% rise in second-hand prices and 1.4% rise in new-build values across the country are not dramatic, but they are consistent with a market where demand is increasing across regions rather than concentrating only in the largest cities.

The surge in the measured propensity to buy from 2.5% to 8.5% is a striking shift in sentiment. That metric measures the share of households saying they are ready to buy; in practical terms it signals more potential buyers entering the pipeline. We see several practical implications:

• Mortgage-oriented buyers may face more competition for well-priced stock, especially first homes, which account for three quarters of purchases.
• Price gains so far are limited, leaving room for selective investors to find opportunities, particularly in markets outside the primary urban cores.
• For sellers, a larger pool of buyers means properties in good condition and at market price can move faster than in 2024–25.

Nomisma tempers the optimism: the steep Q1 +4.4% rise in transactions is not expected to hold. Their full-year forecast is +0.3% growth in transactions, with a slight contraction expected in 2027 before recovery in 2028. That means timing remains important: the market may feel active now but could flatten next year.

Regional divergence: Milan cools while Rome warms up

The national averages hide important regional differences. The Nomisma city-level analysis of 13 major urban centres shows uneven dynamics.

• Milan: prices were essentially flat in H1 — +0.8% for new homes and +0.9% for second-hand — while rents fell -0.7%. Milan’s lower rental pressure bucks the national trend and signals a slowdown in investor and tenant demand in the city centre.
• Rome: stronger movement than the city average — prices +1.3% for new homes and +0.9% for second-hand — and rents rose +2.9% year-on-year. Rome therefore shows both price and rental strength.

What this means on the ground:

• Milan may offer value for buyers who can wait for rents to normalise or who target owner-occupier demand rather than short-term rental yields.
• Rome’s combination of price and rent growth supports investors focused on income-producing assets, though entry prices can be higher and tax and management costs still matter.
• Smaller cities and suburban markets have seen demand spread beyond traditional hotspots; buyers seeking lower per-square-metre prices should look where local fundamentals — employment, transport links, amenities — support demand.

The rental market: supply shortage and rising rents

One of the clearest signals from Nomisma is the structural imbalance in the rental market. Over the last five years demand for rental homes rose by 12% (around 296,000 households). Supply has not kept pace, and this mismatch is forcing rents higher.

Key rental data from Nomisma:

• Average rents rose +3.3% year-on-year in H1 2026.
• In main urban markets average monthly rents range between €660 and €780, but can reach up to €1,200 in Milan, Rome and Florence for some segments.

For investors this means two things: rental income is increasing across many markets, improving gross yields, while limited supply exposes landlords to regulatory and management risk if policy shifts to protect tenants. For tenants the picture is straightforward — affordability pressure is intensifying in many cities.

Practical implications for owners and landlords:

• Expect higher baseline rents in core cities where demand is strongest, but also stronger tenant turnover and potentially higher maintenance costs.
• Consider longer-term leases and improved tenant relationship management to reduce vacancy risk in tight markets.
• In markets like Milan where rents fell slightly in H1, investors must allow for cyclical correction and avoid overpaying based on past peak yields.

What buyers and investors should do now — pragmatic strategies

We translate Nomisma’s findings into concrete moves for different types of market participants.

For owner-occupiers:

• Focus on affordability metrics rather than headline price movements. A 1–2% national price rise will not cancel out local affordability shifts driven by mortgage rates and household income.
• With first-home purchases making up ~75% of deals, competition is strongest in entry-level segments.