Democracy at risk in a world in an election year full of opportunity.

Will there be a crisis of democracy and a transition to autocracy in 2024? It may seem like an odd question to ask at a time when countries representing nearly half of the world's population, or about 3.8 billion people, are sending their voters to the polls. However, experts warn that democracy is a form of government first invented by aristocrats in sixth-century B.C. Athens. - enters the danger zone. Not only do they point out that dictators such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expect to use symbols of democracy to consolidate their rule and crush opposition, but they argue that democracy is also under threat in the West.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to weaponize democratic institutions against political opponents if he wins re-election next November. His possible re-election is already causing panic in Europe that he will turn his back on Ukraine as well as NATO, freeing Putin's hands to rebuild Russia's empire and influence in Central and Eastern Europe. In Europe, the EU elections in June likely indicate that far-right parties, particularly in France and Germany, are gaining real momentum and becoming potential national governments that would be hostile to EU institutions in Brussels and Muslims in Europe, and more favorable to the Kremlin. The big question hanging over these parties is whether they will dissolve the linchpins of European democracy, such as an independent judiciary and free press, after using the ballot box to come to power.

Trump and the threat of autocracy in the U.S.

While elections around the world will be held in 2024, despite growing fears and challenges to democracy, some experts believe the greatest threats to the system are in the United States. After President Trump urged crowds to "fight like it depends on life" to change the outcome of the 2020 election, leading to an uprising, he's back again and wants the presidency. Polls show him most likely to win the nomination from his Republican Party and possibly defeat current President Joe Biden. Trump's restoration to power is becoming increasingly likely, despite potential legal challenges that could hamper his ambitions.

Although Trump is playing the democratic game by actively campaigning for votes, his remarks at mass rallies across the country are scaring people because the real estate properties could turn the most powerful nation in the world into a "dictatorship." It is likely that the transition from democracy to dictatorship in the United States will not be declared as such, but will occur gradually through the undermining of institutions and norms until only the appearance of democracy remains.

The danger of autocracy in Europe

In Europe, where hundreds of millions of people will take part in pan-European elections in June, the danger of a complete shift to autocracy seems less acute. But Kelemen warns that Europe's tolerance of autocrats in its midst, particularly Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, is setting a dangerous precedent by encouraging others to follow his path. In reality, many European countries are vulnerable to Orban's model through corruption networks and media control. In Bulgaria, for example, democracy is fragile and organized crime and Russia play too big a role. In Greece, there is also increasing pressure on state institutions, with the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis accused of undermining regulators investigating the government's work in eavesdropping on politicians and journalists.

All of this has implications for the functioning of the EU itself, which has had limited success in controlling its members on issues of the rule of law and democratic rollback, while these same countries have the freedom of action to oppose the EU. Orban shows this weakness of the EU perfectly, as one leader siding with the Kremlin can block progress on important decisions. For example, he prevented an important financial bailout for Ukraine in December.

Threat to European democracy

More broadly, confidence in the functioning of European democracy is declining in several major EU countries, including France and Italy, according to an IPSOS survey published late last year. In addition, both the West and Putin's admirers among Europe's far-right parties have a common interest in undermining democracy in the EU, Kelemen adds. Before the EU elections, far-right parties are gaining popularity in France, the Netherlands, Germany and other major EU countries. While these parties will not gain power, they could increasingly influence EU policy if they win strong results in the June 6-9 elections, causing Brussels to neglect the rule of law in EU countries and refuse to protect the values that underpin democratic societies.

Whatever the outcome of the world's "electoral Super Bowl" in 2024, it is unlikely that those who do the most damage to democracy will window themselves with the label of wanting to become dictators or autocrats. On the contrary, the closer we get to total eclipse, the more we hear triumphant talk of "democracy in action" from so-called "elected autocrats" like Orban, who will rush to seize control of the media and suppress their opponents. This makes the task of defending democracy even more difficult, Kelemen adds. "The current generation of elected autocrats are trying to embellish themselves in the mainstream of democracy," he said. "It causes confusion for many people and is a challenge to call these regimes what they really are: electoral autocracies or systems controlled by a single party. "