'Road to The Hague: new data and internal political conflicts.'

The Road to The Hague - new data and internal political conflicts.

We all know about the dispute between Greece and Turkey over borders and the AEC economic zone. However, the situation is now taking a new turn. A Metron Analysis survey presented at the Circle of Ideas conference was surprising. Some 55% of those surveyed believe that Turkey should remain in NATO in the interest of Greece, 53% do not deny dialog on all issues, and 68% support an appeal to The Hague. These data show that public opinion is inclined toward a conciliatory solution to the dispute.

Political system

The Greek political system realizes that an opportunity now presents itself that may not present itself again. Politics''Turkey's support for Hamas and the U.S. standoff have raised concerns about whether they will affect the Greek-Turkish dialog. However, the assessment in Athens is that the situation will not adversely affect the current conjuncture. Preparations for the Supreme Council of Greek-Turkish Cooperation are in full swing.

Creating a relationship of trust

Foreign Minister Yorgos Gerapetritis is promoting a relationship of trust with counterpart Hakan Fidan, mainly through the day-to-day management of routine issues rather than''agreeing on the big issues. This approach, while tedious for both sides, has so far yielded results. Tensions have decreased, provocations in the Aegean Sea have not been recorded for months, and both sides have made efforts to control illegal migration flows. The moratorium was achieved because both Yorgos Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan are in the absolute trust of their leaders and have no intention of going into politics, which means they have no personal agenda or electoral commitments. It is no coincidence that the Greek foreign minister believes that our country should show openness and generosity in the dialog with Turkey in the near future.

The Erdogan Factor

The third factor is Erdogan.''The Foreign Ministry believes that after the election, the Turkish president is more interested in his political legacy than in the outcome of previous terms. This could help create cooperation and good neighborly relations if Erdogan is willing to leave as a legacy for his country a less confrontational outlook and practices than he did in 2019-2022. However, as Evangelos Venizelos pointed out, the conclusion to be drawn from this crisis in the Middle East is that time does not solve problems, it only makes them worse, and this applies to both Cyprus and Greek-Turkish relations. If we limit ourselves to the moratorium that exists now, sooner or later it will collapse. It is very good that in their recent phone conversation Mitsotakis and Erdogan talked about the crisis in the Middle''East, not about Greek-Turkish relations. The Hague may still be a long way off, but at least inaction has been abandoned, although this selection probably entails internal political conflicts.