Dubai landlords aren’t selling — why the market is riding out geopolitical shocks

Dubai property market holds steady as landlords refuse to panic

The Dubai real estate UAE market has shown an unexpected steadiness in the weeks after a regional escalation in late February. A new Smart Bricks report finds that listings barely budged and around 85% of surveyed landlords are not considering selling. That reaction — or lack of one — tells us a lot about where liquidity is flowing and which parts of the market are under the most pressure.

Within the first three weeks after the escalation, unique residential listings on major portals rose from 105,300 on 20 February to 110,800 by 16 March — an increase of just over 5%. In property terms that is a small movement, not the sharp spike associated with distressed selling. For buyers, investors and expats weighing Dubai housing prices, the headline is simple: the market is absorbing shocks without a wholesale re-pricing.

Snapshot: the numbers you need to know

• Listings: from 105,300 to 110,800 between 20 February and 16 March (+~5%)
• Survey: more than 600 Dubai-based landlords polled; ~85% are not considering selling
• Transactions (28 Feb–16 Mar): 6,048 residential deals worth Dhs20.2bn ($5.5bn)
• Segment split: 63% of transactions were off-plan
• Smart Bricks tracks over 1,000 data signals per property
• Smart Bricks raised $5m in pre-seed funding led by Andreessen Horowitz

These are the hard anchors. They show a market with ongoing deal flow, concentrated liquidity, and selective buyer behaviour rather than panic-driven dumping.

Why landlords are holding: motives and incentives

The Smart Bricks survey result that 85% of landlords are not looking to sell is the most striking finding. From what we see in the market and in our reporting, several pragmatic reasons explain that stance:

• Rental income matters. Many landlords in Dubai rely on rental cashflow to service loans or as a primary income stream. Selling during a moment of uncertainty would crystallise losses for owners who are able to keep collecting rent.
• Loan structures and refinancing windows. Lenders in the UAE have been watchful, but many mortgages are structured with medium-term amortisation and refinancing options that make immediate sale unnecessary.
• Buyer appetite remains in pockets. Off-plan developers continue to attract investors and end-users; the fact that 63% of transactions were off-plan suggests capital is still moving into development-stage stock rather than existing units.
• Market confidence is uneven, not absent. Landlords who own assets with strong fundamentals (location, tenant profile, ready rental demand) expect to find buyers or refinance when conditions normalise.

In short, many owners see selling now as a value-destructive action. We sympathise with that approach, though it is not risk-free: extended uncertainty can erode rental yields and increase vacancy risk for weaker assets.

Transaction mix: off-plan is where liquidity is concentrated

Between 28 February and 16 March Dubai recorded 6,048 residential transactions worth Dhs20.2bn ($5.5bn). Two-thirds of that activity was off-plan — a clear signal that the current market is selective.

Why off-plan dominates:

• Developers are offering incentives and payment plans that keep buyers engaged.
• Institutional and private investors are continuing to bet on new supply that promises modern specifications and amenity-driven premiums.
• End-users continue to buy for occupation, particularly in ready-to-rent apartments and owner-occupied villas in certain communities.

By contrast, the ready market is more discriminating. Demand is focused on rent-ready apartments and purchases by end-users rather than short-term speculative trades. That pattern is important because it affects price discovery: when speculative volume falls, comparable sales reduce and valuations depend more on cashflow metrics (rental yields) and precise asset characteristics.

What the report says about price action and liquidity

Smart Bricks' analysis emphasises that geopolitical disruptions often show up first as slower transactions, longer time-on-market and shifts in tenant demand rather than immediate price collapses. Mohamed Mohamed, Smart Bricks CEO, put it plainly: liquidity is present, but it is flowing to assets with stronger fundamentals.

This means three practical things for market participants:

1. Pricing is becoming asset-specific. Two similar units in different micro-markets can now perform very differently.
2. Time-on-market will vary more. Sellers of weaker assets should expect longer marketing periods and might need to adjust pricing, incentives, or target buyer pools.
3. Rent and vacancy risk are now central. For buy-to-let investors, yield and tenant durability are more important than capital appreciation expectations in the short term.

Scenarios ahead: how Smart Bricks frames the outlook

The report outlines three scenarios: rapid stabilisation, prolonged uncertainty, and further escalation. Each has different implications for owners and investors.

• Rapid stabilisation: Transaction velocity recovers, time-on-market shortens, and price discovery resumes around existing bid-ask spreads.
• Prolonged uncertainty: A selective market persists; weaker stock faces discounting or extended vacancies; financing conditions tighten for marginal borrowers.
• Further escalation: Broader risk aversion reduces buyer pools and forces more distressed transactions, especially for highly leveraged owners.

Smart Bricks warns that landlord outcomes will increasingly depend on asset-specific factors such as tenant profile, nearby new supply, lease renewal timing and exposure to vacancy risk. Those are not abstract points; they are actionable filters for assessing which properties can weather stress and which will struggle.

Practical guidance for buyers, investors and landlords

We offer pragmatic steps based on the report and market observation. I have followed this market for years and these are the measures I would prioritise now.

For buyers and investors:

• Focus on cashflow metrics. Look at net rental yields after service charges and financing. In selective markets, yield is the immediate arbiter of value.
• Prioritise tenant profile and lease structure. Properties occupied by corporate tenants, long-tenured expat families or tenants with secure employment are lower risk.
• Check micro-market supply pipelines.