The evolution of the electoral behavior of the French.

After publishing the books "French Archipelago" and "France Before Us," you once again explored the territory, gathered statistical data, and created maps and graphs. What were you hoping to understand?

I had two goals. First, I wanted to try to present an overview of the modern French electoral system so that the reader could assess the scale of the electoral changes we have witnessed in recent years. For example, the Socialist Party, led by Anne Hidalgo, and the Republicans, under the leadership of Valérie Pécresse - two parties that have shaped the political life of France for fifty years - received only 6.5% of the votes in 2022. This is an impressive "big bang"! Then, I wanted to use electoral geography as a key to narrate all the economic, social, landscape, and cultural changes that have occurred in our country from the mid-1980s to the present day. These changes have led to the disappearance of traditional landmarks and significant shifts in voting behavior.

This essay helps to better understand what goes on in the minds of the French when they go to the polls. What currently has the greatest influence on elections all over France?

For a long time, France was rural and agricultural. The status of agricultural property, the greater or lesser role of Catholicism, traditional family structures, and the influence of historical events had a significant impact on voting. Now, other factors are more important, such as the level of accessibility to public services, proximity to centers and highways of the global economy, or the cost of real estate.

You also talk about the growing influence of individual factors...

Elections are indeed becoming increasingly individualized. Now, sociological variables (profession, income level, social class), as well as education and age, play a significant role in shaping political views. For instance, 31% of young people aged 18 to 24 and 34% of those aged 25 to 34, members of the "climate generation," were drawn to Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his ecological planning. In contrast, retirees from the "baby boomer" generation overwhelmingly voted for Emmanuel Macron (he received 39% of the votes from people aged 65 and older). The elderly, with their numbers and civic engagement, played a key role in the recent presidential elections.

You also mention that place of residence has a significant impact on voting.

Indeed, the economic trajectory of a region also influences voting behavior. For example, a study by Ifop conducted in 1963 shows how residents of northeastern France, during a full industrial boom, viewed their region as the engine of the country. Fifty years later, this is no longer the case, and it affects voting, with many votes in favor of Marine Le Pen in numerous municipalities in the North. The same applies to regions that receive significant economic benefits from tourism (coastlines, vineyards, major attractions) - their residents are much more likely to support Emmanuel Macron.

Even the height of the commune matters: have you noticed that as the height increases, so does the support for Jean Lassalle? How do you explain this?

The candidacy of this politician from Béarn has indeed resonated in the Pyrenees, as well as in the Central Massif, the Ardèche mountains, the Southern Alps, and Corsica. His speech about the disappearance of public services in rural areas and the protection of traditional lifestyles and farmers struck a chord with the residents of these mountainous regions.

You also mention the end of the traditional strongholds of some politicians. Shirakovskaya Correz, Mitterrand's Nièvre, all of that is in the past. In 2017, Nièvre gave only 6.5% of the votes to the Socialist Party candidate Benoît Hamon, while Marine Le Pen received 24.8% and Emmanuel Macron, the candidate considered "otherworldly," got 22.7%. What explains this evolution?

This is another example, at the local level, of the great electoral "big bang" and the transition to what I call "France after." Everywhere, bastions and local electoral traditions that sometimes existed since the time of the Revolution have been shattered. Marine Le Pen won in Château-Chinon, the stronghold of François Mitterrand, and in Carmaux, the electoral district of Jean Jaurès. As for the current president, originally associated with center-left politics, he received 46.8% of the votes in the 16th arrondissement of Paris in the first round in 2022, increasing his result by twenty points over five years in this bastion of the right.

In the end, what surprised you the most while writing this book?

I followed the changes in my country every day. But the scale and speed of changes in voting behavior are impressive. Just think, in 5,700 municipalities, the socialist candidate received less than 0.5% of the votes! When you dive into the numbers and maps, you truly grasp the extent of the changes made and see the political face of this "France after."

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