'The European Central Bank has not raised rates since July 2022.'
'refinancing rates and marginal lending rates are 4.50% and 4.75% respectively.
In September, the ECB, led by Frenchwoman Christine Lagarde, raised all of its key interest rates as a result of Governing Council deliberations marked by a dilemma between fighting still-resistant price rises and signs of shrinking economic activity. However, eurozone inflation unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in September from 5.2% in August from the same period a year earlier. Inflation in the eurozone has "declined substantially" but "should remain too high for too long," the ECB said.
The data has alarmed some sectors, including the real estate market, however, as rate hikes''there was a better time in the last sixteen months for the ECB to pause' this Thursday, summarized economist Carsten Brzeski of ING. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Gallo considered the current level of interest rates "appropriate" and expressed confidence in inflation falling to the ECB's 2% target by 2025.
On the other hand, "risks of renewed inflation remain and are rising" due to the crisis in the Middle East, which has already driven up oil and gas prices, notes KfW chief economist Fritzi Köhler-Gabe. Also important is the issue of future wage increases, which could contribute to inflation.
The ECB is following the lead of other monetary institutions. In mid-September, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left its key''interest rate unchanged, followed by the Bank of England after 14 consecutive rate hikes.
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Will the ECB follow the same pace? This interim halt "doesn't predict anything about the future," emphasizes Frank Dixmeer of Allianz Global Investors. It means that Christine Lagarde will leave "open the possibility of future rate hikes", says Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics. The central bank will be able to clarify its intentions at its December meeting depending on the latest inflation data and a new set of economic forecasts through 2026. In any case, the ECB''warned Thursday, "Future decisions by the Governing Council will ensure that its key interest rates are set at fairly restrictive levels for as long as necessary. "
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