The French are terrified of ultra violence, Macron worries about unemployment, Pécresse mocks Sarkozy, Sandrine Rousseau's fight with EELV, the National Assembly on the verge of collapse on social issues.

The situation in France seems pretty serious at the moment. According to the newspaper L'Obs, drug traffickers are recruiting very young people, under the age of 25, into their services "to eliminate competitors or intimidate a desired neighborhood." These massacres have already claimed the lives of 451 people this year alone, with 30% of them under the age of 20. These young men are paid on average between 15,000 and 20,000 euros, have no experience and are caught very quickly. Judges from Marseille, who have arrested 7 groups in six months, speak of similarities with the process of radicalization of Islamists: "the profiles of these young men resemble those who went to Syria, interested solely in death itself, attracted by the adrenaline of violence, although they did not at all share the issue for which they were fighting".The money factor, "lack of empathy, lack of humanity", and young people "led by the pack in conditions of subordination" are at work here. Another innovation noted by the Marseille prosecutor is the presence of women involved in logistics or organizing murders. In his opinion, "the reality of organized crime in France is worthy of the most gruesome fictions."...

Now fear reigns in France. The fierce violence in the country is a consequence of Gerard Collomb's prediction that "today we live next to each other, tomorrow we may come face to face." L'Express notes that this prediction "was too optimistic" because we live "one against the other." The newspaper also expresses dissatisfaction with the destruction of institutions.

According to Le Point,Crépol has become "a symbol of tension in France". Jérôme Fourquet notes that Thomas's death is not just an incident, but a struggle of archetypes, a struggle between the city and France, attractively described by Jean Dujardin at the opening of the Rugby World Cup. In his view, "the use of the knife (the weapon that killed Thomas) is a sign of rampant violence and the disappearance of moral inhibitions in people who do not hesitate to kill for the most trifling of reasons." It is a symptom of "a process of destruction of civil society among those members of the population who cannot control their impulses and frustrations." Marianne lists cases of gratuitous violence in recent years, interviewing victims primarily to show a "weak state." The newspaper also quotesCriminalist Alain Bauer, who says the number of homicides in the last four years is "the highest since statistics have existed". In 2022, 350,600 people were victims of stabbing and intentional bodily harm in France. The 2015 terrorist attacks led to a sharp increase in the number of licensed hunters, with 250,000 in 2023 compared to 145,000 in 2014, highlighting the "sense of uncertainty" felt by everyone.

A study by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and CFDT on the ideal society dreamed of by the French shows that 40% would like to live in a small town or village, calm and quiet, close to nature and with peaceful relations between residents. The development of the population according to various parameters (origin, age...) attracts only 7% of theus. In short, we want calm (56%)! "This is the first time these very mobile groups have attacked directly on a town," narrates last Saturday's assassination attempt on a group of 80 right-wing extremists in the town of Monnaie, which included several suspects in the Thomas murder in Crepol. According to Marianne, "The group included Identitarian and neo-Nazis, which also included members of the Martel group, which the Herald Darmanin plans to ban. "

The security specialists of the leading political forces of the National Assembly differ in their answers: on the left, they support the national proximity police (LFI, KP), which knows its territory and can connect with the population. The communists want more police officers, training and betterpay, also emphasizing that quality education helps prevent violence, as the example of the Nordic countries shows. PS makes the same point about "education based on fundamentals", with the creation of 7,000 mediator positions in neighborhoods. This ties in with the Renaissance, as with Horizons, they congratulate themselves for passing laws empowering justice and forces of order. The Renaissance condemns militias who want to administer justice with their own hands, while Horizons insists on restorative justice to complement punishment, putting the perpetrator before his responsibility and victimization. LR needs to enforce the criminal law more rigorously, lowering the age of majority from 18 to 16 andby introducing a civil service for young offenders. The National Assembly intends to increase criminal penalties, remove the age limit and restrict immigration.

Housing is a social and political bomb.

Finding a place to live is becoming a nightmare, and according to the head of one CAC 40 company, "the first candidate to show interest will have a good chance of winning the next presidential election." One in two hires fail because workers cannot afford to live near their place of employment. With rejected loans (loan originations are down 40% year-over-year), interest rates that hit 4.3% at some institutions last month, real estate purchasing power is downby more than 20% in the last few months. The market is blocked by sellers unwilling to lower prices and waiting buyers. The situation with tenants is no better: the number of properties for rent has fallen by 9% on average over the year, in cities by 23% and in Paris by 68%. As for construction, it has come to a halt: "in the summer, the volume of new buildings has halved compared to 2022. Bookings are also down by 30%". According to the head of Credit Mutuelle, "we have lost the sense of demographic change", while now every second person lives alone. "Overall, we are only building half of the 500,000 dwellings we need each year." The sector accounts for 11% of GDP and more than 2 million jobs, but the head of real estate expects 300,000 people to be made redundant. The drop in transactions deprives the state of VAT, andmunicipalities - mutation tax. The Minister of Housing, Patrice Vergriet, promises help with budgetary and fiscal measures (6 million people are eligible for a loan at 0% until 2027), a deep reform of the competencies of the various actors. His slogan is decentralization.

From the financial institutions side, they want to increase the maximum allowable debt levels, now at 35%, and increase the maximum term of loans to 25 years. The Bank of France refuses to do this, hoping that two years before salaries rise faster than consumer goods prices. Developers complain about the tax relief programs that have supported the market and denounce the "constant regulation and increasing costs" of accessibility for low-mobility groupspopulation, on the environment, and on building permits, "which are becoming increasingly confusing and citizens are putting pressure on local authorities," according to a city planner. Even changing a building's use is difficult: It requires changing local land use plans to turn offices into housing.

The Peckresses are back in the spotlight.

The too short election campaign did not allow her to show the French her true self - "an extraordinary woman, a right-wing environmentalist, a right-wing feminist": this is how Valérie Pecrès explains in L'Express the low result of 2022.

She blames Macron's "oratorical rigor operating with words but not deeds" on issues of power. That he has also destroyed the mediators, "it weakens our social pact". And furthermore, "he needs to realize that good ideas can come from more than one head." In her view, immigration requires a revision of the Constitution, a quota by country, a points-based system depending on the requiredqualifications in France: "we can no longer accept citizens of countries that do not want to take their illegal immigrants". She recalls that the European Court of Human Rights is controlled by the Council of Europe, not the European Union, and is not afraid to declare that "between human rights and security, more attention must be paid to security", believing that "without judging with common sense, we are creating a caries reaction to the state of law". Her program is clearly on the right: she continues to push for reform of the state, "massive depoliticization," cuts in public spending, retirement at 65, and a 10% increase in net wages through lower taxes and fees. And it is necessary to restore the attitude to labor "not as a means of getting money, but as a means ofa means of self-development." And to "convince the French that when they work, they are rewarded," she proposes giving priority to first-line workers in public housing.

The bold EU behavior of the Dutch leader

The Dutch election has been won by Geert Wilders' party, even though its leader wants a referendum on leaving the EU. During the 13 years of Mark Rutte's rule, the country has followed Brussels' instructions verbatim: the public debt is 46.9%, unemployment is 3.5% and the budget has a surplus of 0.2%. Marianne reminds us that over the last 20 years the country has accumulated a 900 billion euro trade surplus. However, the country is rebelling against a greater Europe: already in 2005 it rejected the draft European constitution, in 2012 it accused the"Greek rogues" in forcing the country into austerity. This time, the Dutch people want "to do away with this technocratic elite, which, in their opinion, has ripped away the specifics of their economy and daily life." The trigger was the nitrogen issue and new environmental restrictions on agriculture amid rising prices and the migration crisis. "Using the idea that Europe costs the Netherlands more than it brings in, Geert Wilders guessed right. "

Meyer Abiv, the voice of Netanyahu? "

From October 7, Meyer Abiv appears all over the TV news, and L'Obs gives him a poisonous portrait - a French-Israeli deputy affiliated with the Republicans. A Jew of Tunisian origin, he grew up in the 19th district, where he attended a Betar youth organization,which "opposed supporters of Palestinians and the extreme right" in the late 1980s. In 1988, Betar clashed with Opéra Francaise, a movement of co-opted anti-Semites, and Habib was sentenced to two years' probation for "strikes and violent acts committed with premeditation, as well as sedition." He transfers the Likud vote to the Crif, meets with Netanyahu, becomes his friend, and gets his support in France's elections abroad... in a controversial election, the publication writes: "his campaign has been stung repeatedly, and last year his election was invalidated by 'inconsistencies.'" But that didn't stop him from being re-elected. He needs to be found urgently to contact the Israeli prime minister: "in Israel, Habib has a special status, a kind ofbispostnik." Ex-ambassador Gerard Araud is not at all thrilled: "Habib? A fanatic.".

The MP "defends with fire and sword the legitimacy and terms of the Israeli response" and has been accused of "defending Israeli interests to France, as a propagandist for Netanyahu." Despite this, he continues his political activism: according to Jean-Louis Bourlange, "he has forced the Republicans to harden their position", he is fragrant at NUPES after a question to the government on Islamism and he attracts all those who are "united in their desire to stop the invasion of the West by Islam".

Does it make sense to talk about a new pan-Islamism? "

Panarabism in the 50s was the cultural unity of the Arab world against European supremacy. Islamists who believed that.pan-Arabism atomizes the Ummah, the worldwide community of the Muslim religion, opposed to it, explains Jean-François Colosimo in Marianne. By its nature, it excluded Iran, an Islamist dictatorship carrying Islam as a religion. In Africa, Pan-Africanism was also used as a banner of protest against the West, usually used to "create or stimulate conflict situations". According to Pierre-Endré Tagüeff, the danger of these "pan-" (Pan-Americanism, Pan-Turkism) lies in "their conjunction with the world outgrowth of supremacism, expansionism and imperialism, expressed in wars that have become civil wars of civilizations without a break." In his view, "the Islamization of the Palestinian question has made the issue particularly attractive," and while "there is a form ofreturn to Islam and a strong identification with this religion, which is stronger than it was a few years ago in Europe", one cannot speak of pan-Islamism. Essayist Jean-François Colosimo agrees: "if a caliphate were proclaimed here or there, three others would immediately arise." Tagüeff says that the "resistants" of the radical left have found their comrades. "Pan-Resistanceism" is now underway and is the result of an alliance between jihadists, eco-terrorists and Islamic leftists.

The French should be worried.

Will Macron risk it?

How to fulfill Macron's promise to reduce unemployment to 5% by the end of his presidential term? For one OFCE member, "Emmanuel Macron has confused himself by picking unemployment as an indicator".The business climate is deteriorating amid a return to normality after COVID, with an increase in restructurings and judgmental ruin. The postponement of the retirement age will increase the active population by 177,000 already from 2024, while the RSA reform will also force recipients to register for Pôle Emploi. Elisabeth Born does not rule out anything, whether it be reactivating her "one youth, one solution" plan, reducing the number of breakdowns of arrangements, or shortening the duration of benefits for retirees. For one member of the government majority, "There's a real battle brewing at the domestic level right now between those who think the country is broken and think it should be saved. And those who think we should go ahead like a bulldozer and keep reforming."The goal seems unattainable, but for now the government is sticking to an approach for which it has been applauded by Brussels: if Europe accepts French public debt far in excess of communal rules, Bercy promises to eliminate them through full employment." At the risk of saying that when the key to the labor market, is financial compensation for the unemployed, is a mistake. Some members of the majority want a bill "against corporatism, licenses, lock-in economics." Is there still time?