U.S. cities compete to be the best haven for survival in the coming dystopia.

In America, cities are constantly competing with each other - population, professional sports teams, star events and corporate headquarters. For decades, cities have vied for the titles of best city for business or America's healthiest city, but now they're starting to compete for a new title-the best place to experience dystopia.

American cities: advantages and disadvantages

Every American city has its advantages and disadvantages. Some cities pride themselves on great barbecue, while others praise their location near sandy beaches. The country's large size gives American families and businesses a wide range of climates, real estate markets and amenities. It's also''forces elected officials to use a variety of tactics, such as financial incentives, infrastructure investments, and tax breaks, to attract potential movers and strengthen their economies.

Competition between cities

Whether it's Los Angeles winning the 2028 Olympics or Austin convincing Tesla to move to its city, spectacular announcements create buzz around winning cities and allow them to promote the benefits of relocating to the region. On the other hand, cities losing population and jobs risk falling into an "urban cycle of doom" - spiraling decline in economic activity, lower tax revenues and deteriorating local services.

Paradigm shift

Za''For the past 50 years, the winners of this battle between cities have been the expanding metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt. Millions of people moved to the southern and western United States, seeking sunshine and more affordable housing. Businesses followed: the headquarters of Fortune 500 companies quickly moved from industrial cities in the Midwest and Northeast to cities like Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta. In recent years, however, these winners have begun to face new challenges brought on by climate change: 120-degree days in the summer, impending floods, and the constant threat of wildfires. The idyllic places where Americans are looking for a better life are starting to look like risky long-term bets.

Opportunities for previously neglected cities

While cities''The Sun Belt is working to mitigate these challenges, the increased risks also create an opportunity for previously neglected cities. Places that were previously in decline, such as Buffalo, New York City, and Detroit, are offering a new type of marketing campaign to demonstrate that they can offer an attractive combination of stable weather, affordable housing, and significant public investment. These "climate oases" and "climate havens" are trying to attract new movers, freed from the office by the increasing popularity of working from home, and to appeal to people fearful of climate change.

Americans and the climate crisis

Although many Americans are still moving to areas facing increasing''s number of disasters, the country's increasing climate risks have sparked a counter-movement of people seeking safe shelter from storms and droughts. A report from real estate data provider CoreLogic found that 14.5 million U.S. homes were affected by natural disasters in 2021, and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the number of disasters causing more than $1 billion in damage has increased over the past 10 years.

New opportunities for abandoned cities

Most of the current climate migration is occurring in remote areas facing repeated natural disasters. Residents of the Florida Keys, which are constantly being hit by severe hurricanes and rising sea levels, are beginning to abandon their homes.''And many people in rural California are finding it increasingly difficult to buy insurance on their homes in areas where wildfires are common, forcing them to move. But as weather extremes become more pronounced, large metropolitan areas may also begin to feel some strain.

The Buffalo example

Take Buffalo, for example. The city's population has been gradually declining since 1970 as the industrial sector has been depleted. Now the city's leaders see an opportunity to revitalize the region. Buffalo's natural characteristics provide a good starting point - its high temperature in July (79 degrees) is much lower than Phoenix, for example. And according to the Emergency Management Agency, the city was''s exposure to only 27 federally declared disasters since 1953.

Investing in clinical resilience

The leaders of Buffalo have decided to capitalize on these advantages by explicitly portraying the city as a safe place to survive the coming climate shocks. In a speech in 2019, Mayor Byron Brown declared that the city would be a "climate haven" for Americans and promised to invest in building the city's climate resilience. That declaration was backed by investments in key areas - climate resilience was one of the four pillars that make up the city's four-year strategic plan, released in early 2023.

Attraction'. 'hope.

Households and individuals can make an informed decision about where to live based on a wealth of data, such as housing prices, public school graduation rates, and job availability. For an issue like crime, the FBI provides a tool on its website that allows people to compare data for different cities and states across the country. As we learn more about emerging climate risks in different parts of the country, the U.S. government can play a similar role by providing city-level data.

Real estateagency Redfin is partnering with nonprofit First Street Foundation to report on fire, flood and heat risks at the level''specific properties to those looking for homes. My current research shows that home buyers in both 'red' and 'blue' states have begun to make decisions based on this information, evaluating it when choosing where to move. As extreme weather events occur, people looking for a new home will be able to estimate how many people have died or lost their homes in any given city due to the climate crisis. The most climate-resilient cities will be the clear winners.

If cities like Buffalo and Detroit invest in infrastructure - from new roads and renewable energy power plants to entertainment districts and improved schools - to support displaced residents, it will become a self-sustaining economic''cycle, which will enhance their natural weather advantages. As the population grows, new restaurants and cultural opportunities will become available. Housing prices will rise, creating local wealth and economic development. And spending on activity and housing will increase local tax revenues and give cities the opportunity to invest in essential services - the opposite of the "urban cycle of doom." But public investment is unlikely to get very far without private sector innovation.

Northern and Midwestern states will need a strong private sector presence to meet the ever-changing demands of the climate crisis and waves of new residents. Here, too, there is hope.In the recent past''The city of Pittsburgh experienced a sharp recession when its "golden egg" - steel production - declined. In recent decades, the city has rebounded as a "brain economy" with representation from robotics firms working with university researchers and a rising health care economy.

The climate shift doesn't mean there will be a sudden migration of Americans to the middle of the country. Many people are still staying close to home: a 2015 report by The New York Times found that the average American lives just 18 miles from his or her mother. And cities that can become climate havens have their own climate disadvantages - Buffalo will still have harsh winters.

Even in small numbers, however, regional migration''will have profound implications for America's cities. If Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh and other cities succeed in their climate resilience strategies, they will grow to attract residents from more vulnerable parts of the country. This in turn will force high-risk cities like Los Angeles, Miami and Phoenix to invest more to offset their risk from heat and flooding.

Even at the city level, competition drives innovation, and the 'Great "Super Bowl" of climate competition is driving our collective adaptation.