What is the future of film and television in New York City in the wake of the actors' and writers' strikes?

Many filmmakers and television writers are back at work this week thanks to an agreement between the Writers Guild of America and studio bosses represented by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. And there is hope that this agreement could herald another breakthrough in the ongoing negotiations between the actors' strike and the studios. But even if both strikes end almost simultaneously, employment levels in the entertainment industry in New York probably won't return to what they were in the past decade, when streamers invested heavily in production to establish themselves as industry players and attract audiences. And it could have broad implications for the city and one of its major industries.

"The strike is kind of a side effect of the wheels rolling back," said Noah Evslin, a longtime television writer and producer of the series "Scandal," "Grey's Anatomy" and "NCIS: Hawaii. "

Like the other industry experts interviewed for this article, Eveslin sees this moment as a turning point that could be the beginning of a new, weakened era for the industry, potentially meaning fewer scripted options for viewers as well as fewer jobs for New Yorkers working in the industry.

The film and television industry was already facing a number of challenges before the strikes. Streaming services and studios have been cutting costs; Netflix planned to slash its budget by $300 million this year, according to the Wall Street Journal. On Disney's last conference call in August, CEO Bob Iger said the company would cut its content budget by $3 billion, or 10 percent.

The volume of ad buys has fallen, and interest on interest on the accumulated debt in the media sector has gotten higher. New York also faces increasing competition from other places, such as New Jersey and Georgia, which are pulling production away from the Big Apple through aggressive tax incentives.

All of these changes have resulted in fewer jobs in New York's film and television industry. The city's latest employment data from April shows that employment in certain categories of the entertainment industry was already declining before the strike, falling 7 percent from a pandemic peak in 2021, according to an analysis of state data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the first quarter of this year, it was down 0.7% from the same period before the pandemic, in 2019.

These figures underestimate the full effect of a shrinking industry because they only estimate the narrowest understanding of film and television workers - such as camera operators or lighting technicians. They don't include the thousands of people whose jobs are supported by the industry, such as accountants or lawyers, who work mostly with entertainment clients.

About 10 years ago, when the streaming revolution was gaining momentum, studios and streamers faced tremendous pressure to outdo each other in creating and acquiring content.

Despite a flurry of activity during the pandemic as studios rushed to create content for those stuck at home, Eveslyn doesn't expect the gold rush to return.

After the strike ends, a flurry of activity is expected when stopped shows and movies resume later this year and early 2024, but Eveslin expects fewer shows and movies to be made and bought.

"There just won't be a lot of work," Eveslin said.

Other industry experts predict New York will continue to face competition for production jobs from other states.

"New Jersey and Georgia have been very active in chasing business, and it's definitely taken some away from New York," said Doug Steiner, chairman of Steiner Studios, a huge manufacturing facility in a Brooklyn shipyard that opened in 2004 and has played a key role in bringing manufacturing back to New York.

Many industry workers follow their jobs from city to city, Steiner said, and moving to New York for a nine-month assignment is much more expensive than moving And the Teamsters, who narrowly avoided a strike among their UPS drivers last month, turned their trucks around when faced with pickets in New York City this year.

"People realized that Hollywood workers are just workers," Ryan said.

Despite these concerns, some companies are finding enough optimism to invest millions in the future of entertainment production development in New York.

Real estatedeveloper Hudson Pacific Properties, with backing from private equity giant Blackstone, plans to begin construction this year on a new complex of studio spaces at Pier 94, at 54th Street in Hudson.

Jeff Stotland, head of international studios and production services at Sunset Studios, the Southern California company that will manage the facility, says he's playing the long game.

"We're not traders," Stotland said. "We're not looking at what's going to happen next month or next year.

He sees the future of movie production in New York City in the long term, at least 10-50 years.

Stotland said they designed their new Manhattan studio with space limitations in New York in mind, though they plan to accommodate the production of scripted TV shows as well as talk shows and reality shows.

Stotland says he finds hope for the future of scripted shows in the old Hollywood adage, "Nobody knows anything. "

"No one has found a formula to predict success," Stotland said. So studios and streamers must continue to create original content, hoping for the next "Survivor Game" or "Ted Lasso" to prevent subscriber churn and ensure subscriber growth that supports their valuations.

"It's a little bit like picking up Yankees players," Stotland said. "You can't predict success. So you have to make a certain number of bets to get a certain number of successful shows. "

New York Public Radio has a contract with SAG-AFTRA, but our staff is in a different division from the cast and is not involved in any of the strikes.

Correction: This article has been updated to show entertainment industry employment in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the first quarter of 2023. A previous version of this article also mischaracterized the IATSE procedure regarding work stoppage.