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G Guatemala is facing a serious threat to its democracy. Over the past four years, a group of powerful elites linked to organized crime known as the "corruption pact" has consistently destroyed Guatemalan democratic institutions by seizing judicial structures and arresting and expelling prosecutors, judges, journalists and democracy activists. Now, in their next attempt to consolidate their power, they are trying to manipulate national elections that have already begun.

In anticipation of the 2023 elections, President Alejandro Giammattei has filled the courts and the electoral tribunal with supporters. The ruling regime and its allies then used these institutions to distort the Constitution and interfere with electoral procedures to tilt the political field in their favor. The legal sector has delivered - replaying the constitutional ban on the former dictator's daughter running for office, confirming the candidacies of regime supporters indicted and convicted of crimes, and disqualifying rivals based on imaginary charges of abuse of power.

Not even the most seasoned observers of Guatemalan politics could have predicted that Bernardo Arévalo, a moderate reformist, anti-corruption advocate with just 3 percent support before the vote, would be one of the two front-runners in the June 25 general election, earning 12 percent of the vote and a place in next month's runoff. His rival, Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope party, with nearly 16 percent of the vote, is a former first lady and three-time contender for Guatemala's presidential election and has been linked to a "corruption pact." She has been accused of illegal campaign financing in 2019 and her party has ties to organized crime.

1 July The Constitutional Court ordered electoral authorities to verify ballots from the first round of the presidential election after Torres' party and its allies challenged the results, although other candidates had already conceded defeat and international and domestic observation missions declared the election clean. Many fear that such a decision could open the door to additional false accusations that could ultimately flip the results, delay the runoff, or exclude Arevalo from participating altogether. The cries of fraud are reminiscent of those that erupted in the United States after President Biden's victory, although with the backing of Guatemala's entire judicial system, Guatemala's election deniers have a better chance of success.

The situation is causing political uncertainty, but Guatemalans have shown that they are not willing to let their democracy die without a fight. Although the country's autocrats have deployed the full force of the state to steal the election, they are not the only ones mobilizing. Ordinary citizens are raising their voices in defense of their sacred right to vote. If they can win, they will show that it is possible to resist rising authoritarianism. This could be Guatemalans' moment - and one that will reverberate in other parts of the world where democracy is under threat.

Bernardo Arévalo and his Semilla Party

Bernardo Arevalo, a former diplomat, sociologist and a real member of the national parliament, has emerged from the crowd of presidential contenders. He defeated his nearest rival from the Vamos party, represented by Giammattei, by more than 200,000 votes. Arevalo is a member of the centrist Movimienta Semilla party, or "seed movement," largely made up of students, professors, engineers and small entrepreneurs.

Although unknown to the general public, he is the son of beloved former President Juan Jose Arévalo, who in the 1940s began Guatemala's decade-long era of reformist government known as the Democratic Spring. In 1954, a CIA-backed coup d'état abruptly ended the experiment and inaugurated four decades of war and repressive dictatorial rule.

In light of his father's political legacy, the success of Arevalo and his Semilla Party at this moment, though unexpected, is apt. The party emerged in the wake of the corruption scandals that rocked Guatemala in 2015. As a movement, it canalized popular discontent, seeking to build a broad consensus among those disillusioned with predatory politicians and yearning for a different political future. After transforming into a political party in 2018, Semilla has remained committed to fighting impunity and strengthening democracy.

Last month, she proved to be a welcome alternative for frustrated voters. Although the ruling party tried to move the outsider candidates to the background and maintain the political status quo, their authoritarian manipulation lost.

Semilla's success and the subsequent backlash has led to an active citizen activism that is now working to make the voice of the people heard. These citizens launched a campaign on social media, posting registers of votes by polling station, challenging claims of fraud. Volunteers observe a court-ordered audit of the vote count. Indian organizations have promised to stage peaceful demonstrations across the country if the court tries to manipulate the elections. Even business supporters, long on the conservative side, backed the pro-democracy movement and called for the election results to be respected and for the Aug. 20 runoff to go ahead as planned.

The international community is backing them. The European Union, the Organization of American States, and even the United States, which had been reluctant to publicly confront the Giammattea government, reaffirmed the legitimacy of the election results and condemned electoral interference. Democrat neighbors in Central America are also cheering Guatemala's emerging civil movement, which could become a model for efforts against their own increasingly autocratic leaders.

Guatemala faces deep political hurdles ahead in the coming weeks. Even if the court declares the election results valid, Arevalo will have to forge a broad alliance ahead of the runoff that can coalesce around a common political project - which is not easy in a country long divided on ethnic, socioeconomic and ideological grounds. But it's been overcome before. The 2015 anti-corruption protests were led by a diverse popular movement that replaced a sitting president and vice president. Although the past eight years have brought a sharp regression to autocracy, the patience and persistence of opposition leaders have laid the groundwork for this new democratic moment.

Even if the election schedule goes according to plan and someone like Arevalo is allowed to participate, the disinformation campaign to smear him and fear-monger will only intensify. And if he can win a second round, his minority parliamentary majority and the entrenched institutional power of a corrupt elite will prevent him from governing effectively.

The hard work of democratic governance will have to be done another time. At this point, the political stakes are incredibly high. If election deniers succeed, Guatemala will lose the battle for democracy. But if their defenders win, the rollback of democracy will take a severe hit in a country where not long ago the autocratic momentum seemed irreversible.