Let's not escape reality: France is preparing for a 4°C temperature rise by 2100

France is preparing for the worst-case scenario of climate change. The French population was asked what the country should do to prepare for a global average temperature rise of 4°C by the end of the century.

In 2022, France, and possibly other countries, had its hottest summer on record. High temperatures have led to tens of thousands of additional deaths. The prolonged period without rain has dried up rivers and forced nuclear power plants to shut down, resulting in blackouts. The country that offered us the Paris Agreement with the goal of keeping temperatures within 1.5°C above industrial levels now believes that 4°C is possible. Environment Minister Christophe Beshu told the JDD newspaper, "We cannot avoid the reality of global warming, so we must concretely prepare for its inevitable effects on our country and our lives. "

A roadmap for adapting to climate change

The French government has launched a public consultation that will run until the end of the summer to define a roadmap for adapting to climate change. It will serve as a basis for future policies and facilitate their strengthening. It will also be used to develop France's next climate change adaptation plan, expected by the end of the year. The first two versions of the plan, drawn up in 2011 and 2018, considered scenarios with global warming below 2°C above industrial levels - the goal of the Paris Agreement - and a further rise to 3°C. But according to a United Nations Environment Program report released last October, global warming will be between 2.4°C and 2.6°C by 2100 if countries meet their climate commitments by 2030. If measures already taken are not strengthened, temperatures could reach 2.8°C.

Then, last November, the World Bank warned that the world could face global warming of 4°C by 2100. The French government was probably spurred into action by this report.

4°C isn't that much, is it? This is an average. Much of the world's population will face higher temperatures because the land is heating up faster than the oceans. Since 4°C is the global average surface temperature, it includes both land and water surfaces. Despite international commitments to limit global temperature rise to 2°C, the World Bank expects: "Even if current mitigation measures are fully implemented, there is about a 20 percent chance of exceeding 4°C by 2100. If they are not met, 4°C warming could occur as early as the 2060s." With the melting of glaciers and other glaciers on land, such as Greenland and Antarctica, sea levels are predicted to rise by more than 1 meter by the end of the century. The loss of ice makes land and sea more absorbent of the sun's heat. Melting tundra releases methane. The likelihood of other effects is uncertain, but it is likely that the consequences will be much more severe than many governments currently expect. A World Bank report concludes that a 4°C world would face "unprecedented heat waves, severe drought and major flooding in many regions".

Possible measures to combat the increase in global warming include:

• All roads will have to be resurfaced because they will melt at higher temperatures.
• Nuclear power, which currently provides about 70 percent of France's electricity, must be replaced by solar and wind power and other forms of renewable energy.
• Measures must be taken to prevent floods and water shortages.
• Houses should be better protected so that their occupants do not suffer from excessive heat.
• Farmers may be forced to change their practices.

Other changes will be proposed by citizens in response to the consultation, the results of which will be published later in the year. The consultation closes at the end of the summer.