Nearly 1 Million Property Deals in France — Prices Stabilise, But Recovery Is Fragile

France’s property market is showing signs of life — and flatter gains

If you follow property France, the latest Notaires de France report gives a clear, measured picture: activity is returning but the recovery is fragile. The most striking headline is that the number of recorded transactions in the 12 months to December 2025 reached 945,000, up about 12% year on year after two years of decline. That sounds encouraging. It is not a return to boom conditions — activity remains 25% below the summer 2021 peak — and the way prices are moving tells a careful story.

In this article we unpack the data, explain what it means for buyers and investors, and point to the parts of the market that deserve particular attention in 2026.

What the Notaires de France data actually says

The Notaires de France release is the most comprehensive nationwide resource for housing prices because it records the closing prices of actual sales rather than relying on listings or indices with limited coverage. Key points from the latest cycle:

• 945,000 recorded transactions in the 12 months to December 2025, up ~12% compared with the prior year but still 25% below mid-2021 volume.
• National price indices in mainland France rose 0.7% year on year at Q3 2025 — the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.
• Price gains are concentrated in flats: flats +1.3%, houses +0.2% nationally (year on year at Q3 2025).
• Outside Île-de-France, the annual index also rose 0.7%, with flats +1.3% and houses +0.5%.
• Île-de-France recorded a 0.4% annual increase overall; flats +1.3%, houses -1.3%. In Paris, flat prices rose 1.9%; petite couronne +1.2%; grande couronne +0.2%.
• Forward-looking data from preliminary contracts (avant-contrats) to end-February 2026 suggest continued, modest growth: nationwide flats ~+1.4% and houses ~+0.4%; Île-de-France flats about +1.7% regionally and +1.5% in Paris, with houses around +0.8%.

The notaires emphasise that the recovery represents normalisation rather than a full rebound. The adjustment has been through longer selling times and negotiation pressure rather than abrupt price cuts.

Why flats are outperforming houses — and why that matters

The consistent outperformance of flats is the single clearest pattern in the data. I see several practical drivers behind it:

• Urban demand: higher-density areas, including Paris and major regional centres, remain attractive for renters and buyers who prioritise location, access to public transport and services.
• Affordability pressure: with mortgage rates still influencing buyer budgets, smaller dwellings with lower absolute prices are easier to finance than detached houses in many markets.
• Investor interest: buy-to-let investors often favour flats for rental liquidity and management simplicity.

What this means for buyers and investors:

• If you are hunting for capital-growth opportunities, flats in central and inner-urban locations (Paris and major regional cities) are showing the strongest momentum.
• For owner-occupiers seeking space, houses are not collapsing in value but price growth is weak; you should plan for longer marketing windows if you intend to sell later.
• Investors hoping to flip units quickly should temper expectations: the market is returning to balance through longer negotiation and sale cycles rather than rapid price revaluation.

I believe the preference for flats reflects a structural shift in demand patterns that outlasts short-term rate cycles, but it also concentrates risk: any shift in demand for urban living would hit the flat segment first.

Regional breakdown: Île-de-France versus the rest of France

The national snapshot masks important regional differences. The two dominant stories are the partial recovery in Île-de-France and broadly parallel, modest gains in the provinces.

Île-de-France (Paris region)

• The region has exited an extended period of price decline: +0.4% year on year at Q3 2025.
• Flats drove recovery with +1.3%, while houses continued to fall -1.3%.
• Micro-trends: Paris flats +1.9%, petite couronne flats +1.2%, grande couronne flats +0.2%.

These figures show that central urban markets are regaining demand faster than suburban and peri-urban housing. For buyers this means opportunity in well-located apartments, but sellers of suburban houses still face a tougher market.

Outside Île-de-France (the provinces)

• Annual index change at Q3 2025: +0.7% overall, with flats up +1.3% and houses +0.5%.
• The provinces are not following an identical trajectory to Paris, yet the broad pattern is similar: flats gain more than houses.

From an investment perspective, provincial secondary cities can offer value and yield if you focus on transport hubs, university towns and employment centres where rental demand is robust.

Transaction volumes, timing and negotiation — behavioural shifts that matter

Volume data matters because it tells us how many deals are actually happening, not just how prices are moving. The report shows an improving volume trend, but with important caveats:

• Transaction volumes rose by ~12% year on year (12 months to Dec 2025), yet total activity remains 25% lower than summer 2021.
• Sales are completing more slowly; price adjustment is happening through negotiation and longer marketing periods rather than flash reductions.

For buyers this is useful: sellers are often more willing to negotiate terms and price, but you must be realistic about timelines. I recommend:

• Building flexibility into purchase offers for longer completion windows.
• Using preliminary contract (avant-contrat) data and notaires’ pipeline information to sense where a micro-market is moving.
• Expecting negotiation leverage in segments with weaker demand, notably detached houses in some Île-de-France suburbs.

Sellers must be prepared for protracted marketing and to set reserve prices in line with nearby comparable sales rather than aspirational pre-2022 peaks.

Forward projections into early 2026 — what the avant-contrats indicate

Notaires de France use avant-contrats to build a forward-looking view. The preliminary indicators to end-February 2026 suggest continued modest growth, concentrated in flats:

• Nationwide projections: flats ~+1.4%, houses ~+0.4% (annualised).
• Outside Île-de-France: flats ~+1.2%, houses ~+0.3%.
• Île-de-France: flats ~+1.7% regionally and ~+1.5% in Paris; houses ~+0.8%.

Those estimates imply more of the same: a measured, uneven recovery led by apartments.