Thailand: the battle for a $37 billion royal estate.

The main conflict brewing in contemporary Thailand is the struggle between rich and poor, typical of developing countries around the world, where an entrenched managerial oligarchy is provoking increasingly persistent and informed opposition from ordinary citizens who lack political power and economic wealth. However, the main reason that the Thailand crisis is so poorly understood is that a critical part of the story is regularly omitted. The moving war over the royal legacy is asymptomatic, but a diverse elite. At stake is control of the massive royal fortune, estimated at more than $37 billion dollars. The winning side, which will play the role of royal favorite, will potentially dominate politically and economically in Thailand for years to come. This is why the conflict is so violent and malicious.

One of the main factors why this essential element of Thailand's upheaval is rarely in the news is the ancient and oppressive lez majeste law, which forbids commenting on the royal family if it is deemed offensive or disrespectful. Journalists, academics and analysts writing about the crisis in Thailand face an extraordinary dilemma - it is impossible to accurately explain the situation without breaking Thai law. "Amidst all this political maneuvering, the real problem, taking care of Thailand's political elite, cannot be described in local media or even in research papers because Thailand occupies the place of the majorette, ", wrote CLSA managing director and chief strategist Christopher Wood in his investment newsletter Greed & Fear earlier this month. "It can be spoken of as" the great unspeakable ".

The designated heir to Thailand's throne

is 61-year-old Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, a longtime controversial figure feared and loathed by many Thais as a royalist elite. For decades, the elders of Thailand's established power system have dreaded the prospect of the prince one day becoming King Rama X and sought to undermine his prospects for succession.

The political ascendancy of former telecommunications tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, who won a stunning election victory in 2001, posed a double threat to the old elite. First, Thaksin's mass support was built on populist policies aimed at improving the welfare of the rural population, which had always been ignored by the political class, and thus threatened Thailand's traditional oligarchy. Secondly, Thaksin allied with the prince, planning to become the royal benefactor when Bhumibol dies. The new elite seemed destined to supplant the old, and Thaksin and Vajiralongkorn were to secure political and financial dominance through rural votes and palace wealth.

• After Thaksin won election for the second time in 2005, the old elite's panic turned into open panic. Royal elders began hysterical efforts to undermine Thaksin, in alliance with a movement of middle-class street protests - the so-called Yellow Shirts. In their public rhetoric, Thaksin's enemies have focused on his alleged corruption. But their unspeakable fear, which cannot be mentioned because of the lez majeste law, was that with Bhumibol's death, the existing social order in Thailand would be destroyed and the old elite would be eclipsed by Thaksin and the prince's allies.