Thailand-Russia relations: strong, but at what cost?

Despite the West's efforts to isolate Russia on the international stage following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow still maintains warm relations with Asian countries, including Thailand. Last week, at the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin welcomed the "long-term close relations" between Thailand and Russia after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Srettha posted about his first meeting with Putin as Prime Minister of Thailand on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. He reported that they discussed increasing trade and cultural ties, and Putin accepted Srettha's invitation to visit Thailand next year.

Experts say that Srettha, who is a property owner, is simply focused on business. "To raise the Thai economy to 4% and above, you need foreign currency. You need clients. I don't think he has turned away from the West to the detriment of Russia. He wants to do both," said political analyst Titinan Pongsudhirak from Bangkok to DW.

"Although social media protests somewhat overshadowed his recent visit with Putin at the Belt and Road Forum, Srettha cannot be limited to just appearances."“Thailand is still very dependent on tourism, and while not as much as on Chinese tourism, Russian interest and investments in Thailand cannot be ignored,” said Mark S. Kogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai University, Japan.

Thailand continues to maintain business relations with Russia, despite the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow and the political isolation following its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Bangkok abstained from voting at the UN to condemn Russia for the so-called annexation of four territories in Ukraine. An additional complication is the fact that Putin is also the subject of an International Criminal Court warrant, which issued an arrest order for him in March of this year in connection with the situation in Ukraine.

Meeting in Beijing

The meeting in Beijing between the two leaders took place right after Bangkok announced an extension of the stay for Russian tourists in the kingdom. Starting November 1, Russian visitors will be allowed to stay in Thailand for 90 days instead of the previous 30, with the program temporarily in effect until April 30. Thailand hopes that this decision will help boost its economy.

Gary Bauer, a tourism analyst from Malaysia, believes that this decision "makes sense." "Thailand hopes that by offering a longer stay, more Russian tourists will spend more time exploring more of the country," he said.

Thailand has long been a popular destination for Russian tourists. According to the Ministry of Sports and Tourism of Thailand, over a million tourists had visited the Southeast Asian country by October 1. This means that Russian tourists rank fifth among foreign visitors arriving in the country this year. Authorities expect this number to increase to two million Russian tourists by 2024.

“It’s not just a million or more Russians visiting Phuket or other exotic locations, but also investments in real estate that, in a way, stabilize tourism in Thailand by creating Russian enclaves in certain areas, such as Russian restaurants and other cultural features,” Kogan added.

Trade and economy

In terms of trade, Russia is Thailand's 30th largest partner.

Titipol Fakdivanich, a political scientist from Ubon Ratchathani, says that the relationship between Thailand and Russia does not seem to be changing under the leadership of Srettha Thavisin compared to his predecessors. "I am not only looking at Prayut Chan-o-cha but also at Thaksin Shinawatra, because you know, Pheu Thai is Thaksin's party... he had good relations with Russia. Thavisin may not be very different from Prayut when he was in power, because Thailand has not made any statements regarding the situation in Ukraine," he said.

Srettha aims to improve Thailand's economy, which is one of the main issues being discussed during the general elections in the country in May. However, the reputation of the Pheu Thai party has suffered due to its supporters after forming a coalition that includes parties supporting military actions to establish a government. "He is only thinking about economic policy because that is the approach Pheu Thai hopes will help them gain more popularity and change their reputation. If the economy thrives, they will have more opportunities to secure more seats in the next elections," said Titipol.

Allowing more Russian tourists and investments is one way to increase Thailand's income. "It shows that they are also trying to generate more revenue for the government," said Titipol. However, considering Russia's tarnished international reputation due to the war in Ukraine, Srettha's closeness to Putin could result in a loss of reputation, the political scientist added. "I don't think this is good for Thailand's reputation as a supporter of democracy and human rights. It will also damage the reputation of his [Srettha's] government. He might not have taken that photo with Putin, but he chose to show it himself. He doesn't seem to care much about reputation, and he also demonstrated that he doesn't fully understand geopolitics and how to improve Thailand's reputation," he said.