Why are real estate prices in Toulouse not falling in the midst of the crisis?

In the context of a national crisis in the real estate sector, where sale prices are declining in major cities (Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux), Toulouse is showing resilience with a slight increase in prices. However, this may change in the near future.

The real estate market is in crisis. While prices have dropped by 1.6% in the 10 largest cities in France since the beginning of the year, Toulouse stands out. With a price increase of 0.8% over the year, the average price in the Pink City reached 3,772 euros per square meter as of November 1, according to SeLoger (*), a real estate website that regularly publishes its market analyses. Compared to the decline across the country, the capital of Occitanie appears to be stable, with a slower drop compared to other French metropolitan areas.

Slowing dynamics

As of November 1, Haute-Garonne is the second most expensive department in Occitania, with an average price of €3,113 per square meter, ranking just behind Hérault (€3,405 per square meter) but ahead of Pyrénées-Orientales (€2,687 per square meter) and Gard (€2,601 per square meter). Apartment prices in our department have increased by 0.2%, while house prices have slightly decreased by 0.1%, compared to a 9.6% increase for apartments and a 15% increase for houses over the past three years. This data confirms the trend of stability in the Toulouse and Haute-Garonne real estate market, as described by the Notary Chamber in September of last year, which reported an average price increase of 3.1% for old apartments in Haute-Garonne and 2.1% for Toulouse.

The stability of the Toulouse market

According to SeLoger, the price increase in the Pink City over the year, as of November 1, is only 0.8%, with the average price per square meter for apartments at 3,694 euros.

Change in the future

In the context of a general decline in prices in large cities, Paris, Lyon, and Bordeaux, which were very expensive, have been most affected by rising interest rates and decreasing demand: prices have fallen by 8.8% per year in Lyon and by 7.4% in Bordeaux. Toulouse will benefit from stable real estate prices, as it is an attractive and affordable city," continues the SeLoger specialist. But this could change in the future: "Considering the price dynamics in the city, which tend to stagnate, along with increased selling times and a 42% rise in the number of listings (from August 2022 to 2023), it can be assumed that prices in Toulouse may decline more sharply in the coming months," predicts the real estate website analyst, noting: "Prices in the neighborhoods of Ramonville or Colomiers have already decreased by 2%, and Blagnac and Balma are also seeing declines."

One thing is certain: the current situation in the real estate market encourages potential buyers and sellers to negotiate, with the only variable being the adjustment to rising interest rates.