'A casualty for New York City Mayor Eric Adams?'

Scandals are nothing new for New York's mayor, but an FBI investigation into his chief financier makes him vulnerable to a challenge in the Democratic primary.

Published November 7, 2023 12:40 PM EST opinion

New York City Mayor Eric Adams continues to experience one scandal after another since taking office in early 2022. A former city department head and close ally has already been indicted on corruption charges. Two donors have pleaded guilty to conspiracy related to a straw donor scheme and have been indicted on the charges. The FBI conducted searches at the home of its chief financier, 25-year-old Brianna Suggs.

According to federal investigators, they are looking into the possibility that the campaign''Adams in 2021 conspired with the Turkish government to receive illegal foreign donations. Investigators are also seeking to learn more about the possible involvement of a construction company with ties to Turkey, as well as a small university in Washington, D.C., that has ties to that country and to Adams himself.

Adams has not been accused of breaking the law, and there is no indication that the investigation is targeting him personally, according to The New York Times, which revealed news of the corruption investigation. However, the investigation is still a serious problem for Adams.

The city's press is currently treating him better than his predecessor, Bill de Blasio - a liberal Democrat daily''has been criticized by the right-wing New York Post, but the tone of the coverage will only become more strident. The largest media market in America loves a scandal, and Adams gave them an excuse. The fact that details of the investigation made it to The Times - as possible leaked official material from the U.S. District Attorney's office - signals a possible indictment.

Corruption scandals alone don't necessarily put an end to a political career in New York. Former disgraced governor Andrew Cuomo was trying to run for a third term when his closest aide Joe Percoco was found guilty in a widespread corruption case. Percoco spent time in prison before his conviction was overturned by the Supreme Court earlier this year. Despite''s challenging headlines, Cuomo easily won his electoral battle against a progressive challenger, actress and activist Cynthia Nixon, in the 2018 Democratic primary and later won re-election.

Adams faces re-election in 2025 and intends to run again. Like Cuomo, he boasts strong support in the predominantly black neighborhoods of Brooklyn and Queens - Adams is New York City's second black mayor - and the acquiescence of the city's moneyed elites. Real estate developers and financiers see Adams as a business ally who can successfully crush New York's progressive wing.

"What Adams doesn't have in common with some other politicians - notably Koch and Cuomo - is a serious''political accomplishments to run for'.

Once Adams finds himself in a tight spot - with allegations against allies or even his own indictment - they're likely to stick with him. Anyone intending to run against Adams in two years needs to worry about well-funded super PACs spending money against them.

No city mayor in modern history has ever been indicted. However, corruption scandals have tainted tenure or forced resignations.

Ed Koch was a relatively popular mayor during his third term when a shocking parking scandal caused several allies to resign and destroyed much of his political''A national celebrity leading the city through the aftermath of the fiscal crisis and building a lot of affordable housing.

As far as Adams was concerned, leading the city was largely not a priority. Unlike his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, he has not created a new program of the magnitude of the Comprehensive Pre-Kindergarten Program, which has become a national model. Several important agencies are now headed by people appointed by patronage.

U Adams, however,''There's one success story to tell. The city's murder and shooting rates are down from last year, and the overall crime picture in New York City is encouraging.

Economic recovery from the bottom of the pandemic is a reality. While central Manhattan and the Financial District have yet to return to their 2019 numbers, many businesses in the outer boroughs of the city are thriving. Restaurants, museums and clubs are overflowing. New York City's nightlife is flourishing. Fear of crime remains, but the city is on an upward trajectory.

Adams, a charismatic owl, has done much to help rebuild the city. But he's also hyped the fear of crime too much to easily change the negative''s narrative of the city's decline to levels where there were a lot of murders in the 1980s and 1990s. Recently, a former police captain, speaking on the links a year ago, stated that "I've never seen so much crime in my professional career." For someone who was on street patrol when as many as 2,000 people were killed each year (438 in total last year), that comment was particularly ridiculous.

For now, Adams has no cardinal rival in the campaign race. New Yorkers, predominantly those who identify as Democrats, are unlikely to elect a Republican to the office again, so the main action will take place in the 2025 election contest. Prominent municipal Democrats going to the polls with Adams don't want to risk their seats,''when Adams' term limits kick in in 2029. Some fear Adams' temper and unpredictability and are reluctant to get involved in an election contest that could turn into a bitter battle over issues of race and class.

Public polls have been scarce lately. But Adams could be vulnerable if someone like Katherine Garcia, a longtime establishment chief of staff and bureaucrat who nearly defeated him in 2021, runs again. A known progressivist like Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Jamaal Bowman could also make life difficult for Adams, but they are not expected to run for mayor. A state senator from Ocasio-Cortez's district in Queens,''Jessica Ramos, one of the few Democrats who are openly talking about their intentions to challenge Adams.

Adams likes to brag that the mayor's job is nowhere near as difficult as everyone says it is. Whether he'll be able to continue to walk that way these next few months remains a question. His mayoralty has never been more volatile.