Portugal shut the property route—here’s how the Golden Visa actually changed the market

Portugal’s Golden Visa: The property path is closed, but the effects remain

The Portuguese real estate market has been reshaped by a program that no longer allows property purchases as a qualifying route to residency. In October 2023 the government removed real estate from the Golden Visa options under the Mais Habitação law. Yet housing prices kept climbing, and the program posted its strongest year on record in 2024. If you follow real estate Portugal as an investor, buyer, or expat, this is more than a policy headline — it affects asset selection, tax planning, and residency strategy.

In this analysis we unpack the data, explain the new investment routes, assess the on-the-ground effects for the housing market, and offer practical guidance for investors weighing the new fund-based Golden Visa against other ways to enter Portugal.

A short history: how the program pumped billions into property

Portugal launched the Autorização de Residência para Atividade de Investimento (ARI), known as the Golden Visa, in October 2012 to attract capital during a deep recession. The original pitch was clear: a foreign investor could obtain residency in return for qualifying investments, and real estate dominated.

Key facts from the ARI era:

• €7.3 billion in total investment flowed through the program from 2012 through 2024.
• €6.45 billion (about 88%) of that total went into property purchases.
• The program processed approximately 17,700 main applicants and, including family members, delivered residency to more than 42,600 people.
• Over the decade to 2023, Portuguese housing prices rose about 55%, while local incomes rose around 9%.

Those sums are not abstract. In Lisbon, Porto, and the Algarve foreign buyers using the ARI accounted for a measurable share of transactions. By 2022 nonresident buyers made up more than 11% of home purchases in Lisbon, and rents and short-term lets absorbed housing stock in central neighborhoods.

The political reaction was predictable: the program became a symbol in the housing affordability debate. The Mais Habitação law removed property purchases and property-linked funds as qualifying investments in October 2023, aiming to relieve price pressure and free up housing for residents.

The pivot: what now qualifies for the Golden Visa

The Mais Habitação reform changed the underlying economic logic of the Golden Visa. Instead of channeling foreign capital into bricks and mortar, the program now directs it into financial and productive activities. The main qualifying routes are:

• Investment funds: a minimum €500,000 into CMVM-regulated venture capital or private equity funds that invest at least 60% of their capital in Portugal.
• Scientific research: €500,000 into certified Portuguese research projects or institutions.
• Cultural heritage: €250,000, reduced to €200,000 in low-density regions, for certified cultural or artistic projects.
• Job creation: establishing or investing in a business that creates at least 10 jobs.

The market reaction has been decisive. According to Movingto.com data cited in government reports and industry analysis, 96% of new applicants now choose the fund route, with small minorities choosing cultural heritage or research. For many investors, the fund option is familiar: they can evaluate a prospectus, accept a five-year lock-up, and avoid managing a physical asset remotely.

Why the fund route matters for Portugal’s economy — and why it’s risky

The fund route is meant to do what property purchases could not: generate economic activity beyond transaction taxes and renovations. In theory, money invested in venture capital and private equity should:

• Create jobs inside Portugal.
• Support startups and scale-ups in sectors such as technology, renewables, life sciences, and infrastructure.
• Produce tax revenue and intellectual property rather than passive asset appreciation.

There is a structural element that supports this goal: funds must be CMVM-regulated and invest a majority (60%+) of capital domestically. That creates a floor of exposure to Portuguese firms.

But the proposition has clear execution risks:

• Fund performance is uncertain. Venture and private equity carry higher return volatility than core property markets.
• Measuring local impact will take years: fund capital deployment, company growth, and job creation do not happen overnight.
• Compliance and transparency are essential. Investors must rely on fund managers, due diligence, and ongoing CMVM oversight.

I welcome the policy shift in principle, because Portugal needs productive investment. In practice, success depends on the pipeline of investible Portuguese companies and the quality of fund managers delivering returns and local economic benefits.

The paradox: housing prices rose even after property was removed

If the goal of the property ban was to cool prices, the early evidence is sobering. By April 2025 median bank appraisal values were €1,866 per square meter, up 16.9% year-on-year. That indicates the Golden Visa real estate route was not the sole or dominant driver of price inflation.

Two structural forces remain:

• Supply constraints: Portugal has delivered far fewer new housing units in recent years than it did at the turn of the century. Construction output fell from historical peaks of about 200,000 units per year to roughly 20,000 units in recent years.
• Tourism and short-term rentals: demand from the tourism sector continues to absorb stock in city centers and coastal zones.

The government has responded with a €2 billion public housing initiative and proposals to ease construction rules to promote denser urban development. Those measures acknowledge that cutting off a single capital channel is not enough without more supply.

Who is applying now — and what that means for demand

The applicant profile has shifted. While Chinese and Russian nationals were prominent buyers during the property era, the new data show that U.S. nationals became the largest national group of Golden Visa applicants, with 567 permits issued to Americans in 2023, a 162.5% increase year-over-year from the prior year.

Family reunification numbers also rose sharply: 2,909 family members received permits in 2024, up 87% from 2023.