Home sales and prices: Nomisma's forecasts for 2025

In Italy, the real estate market did not immediately feel the drop in sales volume and prices that should have occurred during the pandemic. However, according to Nomisma, the downturn is coming soon. Real estate purchase terms are becoming less favorable, and reliance on mortgages is making homeownership more remote than it was a few years ago.

According to Nomisma's research, the number of transactions is expected to decline by 14.6% in 2023, from 784,000 in 2022 to 670,000 in 2023. Already in the last months of 2022, there has been a noticeable decrease of 2.1% in the number of transactions, especially in theMilan market.

The main reason for the unfavorable situation is not the recession, which according to Nomisma economists should have occurred but did not, nor are the high energy costs, which have fallen thanks to global warming. The reason lies in inflation, which restrictive monetary policy has no effect on because of its direction. This is creating a mismatch with rising wages and supporting purchasing power.

When it comes to real estate prices, according to Nomisma, they are still rising but aiming for stability. In 2023, house prices are expected to rise by 1% (up from 3.1% in 2022), but adjusted for inflation, this would result in a 4.8% decline in prices. The same can be said for the following years.

According to Nomisma, the rental housing market, on the contrary, is expected to grow after a slowdown in buying and selling transactions.