Real estate sales and house prices in Italy: Forecast for 2023-2025.

In light of the "invisible" recession, the hard struggle between inflation and non-residential stagnation, geopolitical uncertainty and not always effective monetary policy, the real estate market in Italy is slowly sinking, not seeing the drop in demand and prices that were supposed to occur in the pandemic years. However, according to Nomisma, the reverse trend is not far off: the situation is once again becoming unfavorable for buyers and the increasing reliance on mortgages is making it harder to buy property than it was a few years ago. In its Real Estate Market Review, Nomisma takes a snapshot of the situation in the main Italian cities and forecasts the market situation until 2025.

Predictions for buying real estate in Italy for 2023

After the pandemic, the real estate market in Italy showed an expansion that exceeded forecasts, thanks to the desire to improve housing conditions, the greater cash in the budget of Italian families and the very low cost of credit, which facilitated the mortgage market.

According to the forecasts of the research center, while 2022 closed with 784 thousand sales, 2023 will close with 670 thousand (down 14.6%), 2024 with 643 thousand and 2025 with 669 thousand. The deterioration of the buying and selling market was already evident in the last months of 2022, with a decline of 2.1% and especially inMilan, where the market has been negative for two consecutive quarters.

Reasons for the unfavorable situation

Tenant profiles

Predictions from Nomisma

Sources of demand for the purchase of housing