Re-Max: Real estate market shrinks in the first half of 2023, but forecasts are positive.

It is no secret that in the first six months of this year there was a reduction in real estate transactions due to rising interest rates and increasing real estate prices. This trend may continue in the second half of the year, but the outlook for the medium term may be positive. This is stated in the eighth edition of the Real Estate DATA HUB, conducted by Re/Max Italy, which analyzed the dynamics of the sector in the first six months of 2023. After an overview of the economic situation, the report, prepared by the research centers RE/MAX Italy and Avalon Real Estate, as well as the research office 24MAX, presents a detailed study of the cities ofMilan, Bergamo, Rome and Naples, as well as their regions, studied by individual sectors: residential, logistics, office,''commercial and hospitality.

According to the analysis of real estate transactions presented in the Real Estate DATA HUB, the buyers' preference for three-bedroom apartments (40.32% of the total) is confirmed. Then follow two-room apartments (22.90%) and four-room apartments (18.81%). There is also an increase in transactions with five or more rooms compared to the previous year. Mono-room apartments remain stable at around 3% of the total.

The leading regions in the real estate market continue to be Lombardy in the north, followed by Veneto and Piedmont, Lazio in the center along with Emilia-Romagna andTuscany, and Puglia in the south along with Campania. In the islands, the largest number of real estate transactions are registered on''Sicily. When comparing the first three quarters of 2023 with the same period of 2022, it is possible to observe a decrease in demand throughout the peninsula.

When analyzing the timing of sales and rentals, it can be observed that timing is decreasing, with shorter timing in the north compared to the south.

The overall price trend shows an upward trend in the long term. In the short term, the first quarter of 2023 marks higher prices per square meter by 2.40% compared to the first quarter of 2022 and by 1.10% compared to the first quarter of 2021. The second quarter of 2023 shows a 1.08% decrease from the average price level in 2022 and a 3.45% increase from''with the same period in 2021. The third quarter shows a decrease of 7.09% year-on-year. It is worth noting that 2022 saw a significant increase in prices, while a comparison with 2021 shows a smaller decrease of -1.89%. The database refers to existing properties only, excluding new builds and undeveloped plots.

The mortgage market in the first half of 2023.

In the first half of 2023, according to data provided by the Research Bureau 24MAX, the average amount financed rose by 2.56%, from 121,802 euros in the fourth quarter of 2022 to almost 124,923 euros. 92.16% of mortgages granted in the first half of the year are for home purchases; secondary housing mortgages and replacement mortgages are decreasing.''Among those applying for mortgages, the number of married people is decreasing, while the number of single, unmarried and retired people is increasing, suggesting families are more cautious. The preferred age group is young adults between the ages of 18 and 34.

The situation in the medium term

The positive outlook for RE/MAX Italy finds its justification in the number of new deals concluded in the first half of 2023, which shows greater dynamism compared to the same period in 2022, although the general economic situation may imply greater market volatility in the medium term. "As anticipated, the increase in interest rates coupled with rising real estate prices has led to a reduction in transactions in the latter''investors and real estate dynamics in terms of number of transactions, volumes, yields and prices,' Castilla adds.