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'The real estate market is slowing down in France.'

'The real estate market is slowing down in France.'

'fifty years. Although the level of this phenomenon varies from region to region, it is common to the whole of France, where the number of transactions per year is falling in almost all departments. "After a dynamic development supported by attractive interest rates, the real estate market is experiencing a real turnaround. We noted a slowdown at the end of 2022, which is unfortunately confirmed in 2023", analyzes Loic Cantine, President of Fnaim. "The impact of inflation in recent months and the increasing difficulty in accessing mortgage loans are clearly affecting the number of transactions, which have fallen sharply", he details. © DR, Number of existing home transactions (accumulated over 12 months, in thousands).

Prices have stopped rising.

While before prices were showing''good sustainability on a national level, they are now feeling the full brunt of the slowdown in the real estate market. For the year, they are flat or even slightly up 2.9%. For the final quarter, the decline becomes more significant, with prices down 1%. The biggest price decline is characterized by houses, down 1.7% over the last three months, while apartment prices remain stable (0%). In short, prices are no longer rising. If the decline in prices is characteristic of the whole of France, some territories, such as Paris, are feeling a stronger decline.

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"We foresee a continuation of this deterioration in the coming weeks and months. During 2023, prices should fall by about 5%, which would amount to a real decline of almost 10% adjusted for inflation", Loïc Cantine sadly remarked. ©''DR, House price change in France by property type (base 100 in 2014).

Decrease in property affordability

In 2022, purchasing power in real estate decreased by 4%. This trend of deteriorating purchasing power will accelerate in 2023. The main culprit for this deterioration in the real estate market is mortgages, whose interest rates continue to rise and availability is shrinking. Instead of 1%, as in previous years, they have surpassed 3% and should continue their upward trend in the coming weeks, approaching the 4% level by the end of the year. "Restrictions in the credit access environment and rising interest rates have created an explosive cocktail that has completely hit the real estate market. It should be understood that from January 2022 to May 2023''Borrowers' capacity has been reduced by 20%, amounting to an average reduction in purchasing power of €40,000 - a significant reduction!", commented Loic Canten. Lending has fallen sharply (-31% compared to 2022), dropping to below 2018 levels, which in turn reduces the affordability of property for French families. All indicators are in a critical situation, and according to many experts in the industry, it is far from normalization.

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