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The demise of the baby boomers could temporarily depress real estate prices.

The demise of the baby boomers could temporarily depress real estate prices.

is changing. We'll have to see if it becomes structural. I'd like to present 'ten trends', but then my wife and I might not survive," jokes Cohen De Leus.

"We believe that with multiglobalization, climate transition, aging populations and debt, inflation will be structurally higher and hover around 3% in a "normal" future. We also believe that productivity will actually increase in the future," he continues. In his view, negative interest rates are a thing of the past and will be for a long time.

But we need to be bold: we have too many "zombie" companies that are a drag on overall productivity. This will lead to a cleanup.

"Debt repayment will become increasingly difficult. We are not heading for disaster, but they will need to be''monitor more rigorously,' he continues, though he defends continued investment in certain areas, both public and private, including energy-efficient repairs and manufacturing tools.

"It needs to be done. It needs to be done by states as well as companies. There will probably be more bankruptcies. But we need to be bold: we have too many "zombie" companies that are a drag on overall productivity. There will be a kind of purge. Because some companies survive only because of the current low interest rates," Cohen De Leus admits, a little cynically.

"Schumpeter (the economist behind the theory of creative destruction - ed.) went to sleep, but he's back. We expect a wave of defaults. So we must''To experience some downturn in the short term, but after that it will be better. However, we need to allocate resources and labor wisely to profitable and future projects,' says Philippe Gijssels.

"The world must seek a new equilibrium, and it will find it. I hope that innovation will help us. We need fewer pessimist predictors, but more experimenters, people who find solutions, for example in energy. We also need to avoid too much welfare decline, otherwise it feeds populism. I have hope for the Millennial generation and Generation Z. But let's see if this innovation will be enough for deflation," explains Cohen De Leus.

"We have to avoid too much of a decline in the wealth of the population, otherwise this''feeds populism,' adds Philippe Gijssels.

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"EROI, the energy return on investment (energy efficiency indicator), has gone through several stages. From 'EROI 5 in ancient times we went to EROI 15 with coal, 30 with oil and 50 with nuclear energy. Everything is related to energy. We will need to see how we can keep this high EROI with renewable energy so that we don't reduce the cake that needs to be shared between everyone," he explains.

The speech is reminiscent of that of engineer and energy consultant Jean-Marc Djankovici.

"The conclusions he draws are more negative and pessimistic. I think we can succeed, but we have to be realistic," replies Philippe Guijssels.

"I think that the war in Ukraine and the gas crisis allowed us to win". 'a lot of time at once. But we need to keep going. We have to introduce a carbon tax, and not just for companies, within a decade. And rich people will have to pay more," continues Koen De Leus, who suggests the cost could be around €2,000 a year per family on average.

Economists are quite optimistic about Belgium. "Prices have risen because of the strong drop in interest rates, that's true, and they will probably suffer a little bit because of the rise in rates. But in France and the Netherlands, prices are crazy right now and we are not. Despite the recent increase, prices remain lower in Belgium and there are less downside risks," explains Cohen De Leus.

"Real estate stabilizes the portfolio," he adds. Nevertheless, he believes that the wave''The deaths of the baby boomer generation should have a slight impact on prices over the next few decades, increasing the supply of affordable housing. "The passing of the baby boomer generation could temporarily depress real estate prices." Out of every crisis, an opportunity is born ... " "These are the same baby boomers who want to prevent immigration while they themselves need it, whether it's for home maintenance and repair, caregiving. With the aging population, we need labor. We can't build walls everywhere. We need to make agreements with some countries and practice controlled immigration," he concludes. To access this article, please connect to the Internet.

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