Housing: why the shortage may worsen

According to the Social Union for Housing (USH), 518,000 dwellings, including 198,000 social housing units, need to be built or re-marketed each year until 2040 to meet the future needs of the population. According to a study conducted by Habitat & cabinet; This representative social housing organization published the results in early October. According to the study, France needs to build or rehabilitate 518,000 dwellings on the market each year until 2040 to meet the future needs of the population. This estimate is significantly higher than the previous estimate by the Court of Accounts a few months ago, which was 370,000 dwellings per year.

The USH cites several factors in arriving at these conclusions. The most important of these remains combating the problem of bad housing, which has long been ignored. This is a solitary requirement of 122,000 new dwellings per year. The reduction in families, i.e. the average decrease in the number of persons in a family, mainly related to the aging of the population, the increase in divorce rates or the later participation of young people in marriage, also requires 116,000 new dwellings per year.

Not to forget the replacement of 33,000 energy intensive dwellings to be removed from the housing stock, 74,000 additional dwellings to meet positive migration statistics in future years and a further 100,000 to meet the demand for secondary dwellings. As a comparison, the study notes that an average of 430,000 new residential units per year were permitted between 2017 and 2022.

If the USH is worried about the housing shortage in general, the study also highlights the lack of social housing that France will face in the coming years. Thus, among the 518,000 annually missing housing units, USH believes that 198,000 of them should be social housing, i.e. 38% of the total need. In recent years, France has fallen well short of its target, with less than 100,000 new dwellings allowed per year in 2021 and 2022. That number is even set to fall this year, as Housing Minister Patrice Vergriet has said that only 85,000 new social housing units will be allowed in 2023.

This is why the minister himself believes this number is "not enough" to solve the crisis. He realizes that the government has fallen far short of its goal in addressing the problem. USH President Emmanuelle Coss, in a statement released Sept. 27, said the draft budget presented by the executive branch "does not reflect the current problem of the crisis in the housing market." It deplores "a lack of ambition that will harm social housing tenants and low-income families waiting for housing". While Patrice Vergriet will be invited to speak at the final part of the Social Housing Congress, it seems that the ball is now on the government's side to offer solutions in the face of a crisis that is only getting worse.