Foreign Share Falls to 26.5% as Cypriots Drive the Property Market Surge

Cyprus property is not dominated by foreigners — numbers tell a different story

Cyprus property has been the subject of heated debate: are foreign buyers crowding out locals and pushing prices beyond reach? New analysis by Fiona Mullen, director of Sapienta Economics, suggests the picture is more complex. The headline finding is clear and surprising to many: non-EU nationals accounted for only 26.5% of property contracts in 2025, down from 31.7% in 2023, while Cypriots made up 59.5% of purchases in 2025. That shift matters for buyers, investors and policy makers alike.

I will walk through the data, explain what it means for investors and expats, and highlight the risks that still make affordability a political flashpoint. We read the original analysis and the official statistics so you can make practical decisions about buying or investing in Cyprus real estate.

What the data actually show

Fiona Mullen carried out what she described as the "mind-numbing task" of pulling figures out of separate PDF files to compare sales to foreign buyers with sales to Cypriots. Her central findings are:

• Non-EU nationals represented 26.5% of contracts of sale in 2025, down from 31.7% in 2023.
• Cypriots accounted for 59.5% of purchases in 2025.
• Sales to Cypriots rose from 4,875 in 2018 to 10,859 in 2025.
• Purchases by non-EU buyers rose from 2,939 in 2018 to 4,809 in 2025.

Those numbers mean both domestic and foreign purchases increased in absolute terms between 2018 and 2025, but Cypriot demand grew faster. Mullen’s point is straightforward: looking at rising foreign buyer counts in isolation can give a misleading impression of dominance when local buyers are rising faster.

She also criticised a September report from the Cyprus audit office that suggested foreign ownership might be understated because some foreigners buy through Cyprus-registered companies. Mullen wrote that the audit office should not speculate without hard evidence and recommended that parliament use existing ultimate beneficial owner records to provide anonymised nationality information to the land registry. Only with that data, she argued, can the full picture be known and policy decisions be appropriately targeted.

Where foreign buyers still move the dial

The broad headline about declining foreign share masks important geographic variation. Official Cystat data on residential properties show that in most cities except Nicosia, sales to foreigners exceed those to Cypriots. Crucially, foreigners typically pay more per square metre than Cypriots, which has two effects:

• It raises average prices in those cities.
• It creates upward pressure on valuations across the market.

If you are an investor or an expat considering a purchase in Limassol, Paphos, or Larnaca, that premium per square metre matters. Higher prices in tourist and coastal centres can support capital appreciation and short-term rental returns, but they also raise acquisition costs and reduce initial yields.

Why local demand has risen faster

The growth in Cypriot purchases from 4,875 to 10,859 over seven years is a major structural change. From my reporting and conversations with market participants, several forces explain why locals are buying more:

• A cohort of older Cypriots who are asset-rich and property-wealthy hold supply off the market, limiting stock available for young buyers.
• Low or historically low mortgage rates in recent years made home ownership more affordable for some households.
• A recovery in the economy after past shocks increased employment and income for certain groups, enabling more purchases.
• Demographic change and household formation among younger families has increased domestic demand.

These drivers are not speculative; they reflect widely reported market behaviour. The policy implication is that rising local demand combined with foreigners paying a premium per square metre produces a price dynamic that is not simply a foreign ‘takeover’ but a combined pressure on supply and affordability.

What this means for buyers, investors and expats

We cannot treat this as just a numbers story. The interaction of local and foreign demand affects investment returns, transaction strategy and long-term holding plans. Here is what buyers and investors should keep in mind.

• Due diligence on pricing:

  • Expect higher asking prices in cities where foreigners dominate transactions.
  • Check recent sales comparables by buyer nationality if available; foreigners often pay a premium per square metre.

• Rental market and yields:

  • Coastal and tourist areas can produce stronger short-term rental demand but also higher acquisition costs.
  • Gross yields may compress in areas with steep price inflation unless rental rates rise in step.

• Financing and leverage:

  • Domestic buyers might benefit from local mortgage offers with familiar underwriting standards.
  • Non-resident financing terms can be less favourable; confirm terms before committing.

• Ownership structures and transparency:

  • The audit office suggested some purchases might be through Cyprus-registered companies. Mullen says this is speculation without hard evidence. Still, if you plan to buy through a company for tax, estate planning or privacy reasons, understand the legal and reporting requirements and the potential political sensitivity.

• Tax and policy risk:

  • Parliament could decide to use beneficial owner data to inform policy. That could lead to changes in transparency requirements, taxes on foreign purchases, or targeted measures to improve affordability.

In short, properties in cities where foreigners pay higher per-square-metre prices will likely remain pricier and require tighter underwriting from investors. If you are an expat buyer, assess whether you are paying for location and amenity premiums or a structural price uplift.

Political and social risks: affordability is the flashpoint

Mullen highlighted a worrying fault line: an ageing cohort that is asset-rich and resistant to higher taxes is contrasted with a younger cohort that cannot afford to buy. She quoted economist David McWilliams’ view of a “ticking time-bomb” that could fuel support for anti-democratic movements.

That is not idle rhetoric. Housing affordability is an electoral issue in many countries, and Cyprus is no exception. The combination of:

• higher per-square-metre payments by non-Cypriots in many cities,
• rising local demand, and
• limited supply of suitable homes for first-time buyers

creates social tension. Policymakers have options, but each carries trade-offs:

• Use transparency measures such as beneficial owner data to design targeted taxes or restrictions on speculative buying.