Bangkok condo sales climb 12.7% — yet a 350,000-unit glut leaves buyers in control

Bangkok’s contradictory market: sales up, but a huge condo glut remains

Thailand real estate is showing a stubborn contradiction: transaction activity is improving even as a large inventory hangs over the market. According to Knight Frank Thailand, condominium transfers in Bangkok and neighbouring provinces rose 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, signalling renewed demand. At the same time the same consultancy reports roughly 350,000 unsold condominium units remain on the books — an overhang that will shape developer strategies and buyer leverage for years.

This is not a simple story of recovery. In our analysis the figures point to a market where policy support and targeted incentives lift sales, while structural oversupply forces cautious behaviour from developers and creates negotiating windfall for purchasers and investors.

What the Knight Frank data actually says

Knight Frank Thailand’s recent note is concise but telling. Key points they flagged are:

• Condominium transfer activity rose by 12.7% year-on-year in Bangkok and surrounding areas in 2024.
• Government measures helped support demand: relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) regulations and reduced transfer fees were identified as contributing factors.
• Despite the uptick in transfers, the market carries an estimated 350,000 unsold condominium units.
• Annual transfers average about 60,000 units, which leads to the consultancy’s calculation that, if supply is limited going forward, absorption of the existing inventory may take five to six years.
• Developers are expected to be highly selective over the next one to two years, concentrating on locations and price points with demonstrable demand.

Potjaman Vorakitpokathorn, Partner and Head of Project Marketing at Knight Frank Thailand, says buyers will retain strong negotiating power on price, incentives and payment terms because competition remains intense.

Why sales rose even with such a big surplus

There are clear drivers behind the 12.7% increase in transfers, even as unsold units pile up:

• Government support has lowered the cost and friction of buying housing. Relaxed LTV rules mean buyers can access financing more easily than they could during tighter lending conditions. Reduced transfer fees lower transaction costs and can spur buyers to act now rather than wait.

• The recovery is uneven, and activity may be concentrated in specific sub-segments where demand is healthier. That helps explain an overall rise in transfer counts while a large volume of units remain unsold in other sub-segments.

• Market psychology matters. When financing appears more accessible and transaction costs fall, buyers who were waiting for better conditions move into the market, improving monthly transfer statistics even if the stock problem remains unresolved.

In short, policy nudges can raise transaction velocity without correcting the underlying mismatch between supply and demand across all price bands.

The scale of the oversupply and the math behind absorption

The headline figure is stark: 350,000 unsold units. Translate that into market mechanics and the implications become clear.

• With current average transfers at about 60,000 units a year, Knight Frank’s estimate of five to six years to absorb the existing inventory assumes developers limit new supply. If developers continue to launch new projects at prior rates, that absorption period will lengthen.

• Absorption rate is a central metric for property investors and developers. A slower absorption rate typically leads to longer holding periods for unsold inventory, higher carrying costs for developers, and pressure on prices and incentives to accelerate sales.

• Buyers who can wait will find better negotiating leverage on price and terms; developers who must preserve liquidity will offer discounts, flexible payment plans and extras to shift stock.

This is not a distant or theoretical issue. For a market with a heavy condominium pipeline, the company that misprices a new launch risks tying up capital for years.

How developers are likely to respond in the short to medium term

Knight Frank’s forecast that developers will be selective is backed by what we see in other markets with similar overhangs. Expect the following strategies:

• Prioritising projects with strong presale prospects and proven micro-location demand.
• Delaying or cancelling launches where product does not meet clear buyer preferences on price, design or amenities.
• Preserving liquidity through slower land acquisition, tighter construction schedules and stronger focus on cashflow from delivered projects.
• Offering creative payment plans, buy-downs and concessions to convert hesitant buyers.

Developers who stick to volume plays in secondary locations or in over-supplied price points will face tougher profitability pressures. The market will reward precision: target the right location and price point and the project moves; miss the mark and inventory sits.

What this means for buyers and investors — practical takeaways

For buyers and investors the market is changing in ways you can use to your advantage, but there are risks.

Buyers who plan to live in a unit or buy a condo as a home should consider:

• Negotiation leverage: With competition fierce, developers are more willing to offer price reductions, extended payment terms, waived transfer fees or free furnishings. Always ask for a full list of incentives and check which are cash-based and which simply shift costs to later stages.
• Timing purchases: If you have flexibility, you can wait for year-end campaigns or clearance sales when developers push to hit targets.