'Portugal's house price decline to 4.4% by 2023 according to S&P'
'adjustments in house prices than the other markets considered, concludes S&P. As a reminder, in our country about 90% of mortgages are variable rate and linked to Euribor.
The S&P forecasts point to a decline in house prices this year in 10 out of 11 European economies, namely in Portugal the decline in house prices will be the sharpest in 2023 (-4.4%). This is followed by the UK, where house prices for purchase should fall by 3.5% by the end of this year. Spain and the Netherlands should also feel the fall in nominal house prices (both -2.5%). In Sweden, house prices have already started to fall in 2022 (-4.3%), unlike other economies under consideration, such as Portugal, where house prices rose by 6.8% last year, S&P predicts. But this year's fall''should soften in this country located in the north of Europe (-2.2%). In 2023, only Switzerland is expected to see a slowdown in house price growth for sale (+0.5%) instead of a fall.
Housing prices in Europe will be higher again in 2024? Consequently, S&P expects house prices to correct in most European economies during 2023. And in some European economies, the fall in house prices will also continue in 2024, such as in Germany (-1%), Spain (-1%) and Belgium (-0.5%). In the Netherlands, house prices should neither rise nor fall in 2024. In the remaining countries, the ratings agency expects house prices to resume their upward trend, but not as sharply. Sweden, where house prices will start to rise again in 2024 (+3.7%), leads the way, followed by the UK''(+2.7%) and Switzerland (+1.4%). In Portugal, home prices for sale are expected to rise by just 0.5% next year, the ratings agency also forecast.
"There is little or no prospect of a strong recovery [in house prices] before 2025," said Sylvain Broer, chief economist for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) at S&P Global Ratings, quoted in the document.
27 February
10
"We observe that the adjustment to higher interest rates can last up to ten quarters and is typically twice as pronounced after''a period of low interest rates,' explained Sylvain Broer, although historically house prices in Europe have been fairly unchanged when it comes to falling prices.
It should be noted that while nominal mortgage interest rates have risen sharply, reaching their highest level in a decade, in real terms (inflation-adjusted) interest rates remain negative and should remain so until mid-2024. Higher interest rates are not yet reflected in house prices in 2022.
In its analysis, S&P emphasizes that both home prices and investment could be affected by a rapid rise in mortgage interest rates, but notes that not all housing markets adjust home prices''at the same time. Euribor interest rates have risen in Europe through 2022. But the agency notes that house prices have barely adjusted to rising interest rates. Why. Lack of supply in the markets may be the reason for this fact, given the strong demand for housing. In addition, families continue to buy homes in different countries (such as Portugal), even with higher interest rates. This is why house prices continued to rise in the countries in question in 2022. Specifically, S&P notes that house prices have continued to rise by an average of 10% through the first half of 2022. There are also factors that support continued demand for home purchases in Europe: the improved financial situation of families, supported by high levels of employment; rising''wages; accumulated savings during the pandemic. Thus, the agency notes that the purchasing power of families could recover as early as early 2024 due to higher wages. On the other hand, they also point out that the flow of refugees from Ukraine is also increasing demand for housing.
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