What will happen in the real estate market in 2024? Predictions - Immobiliare.it News

A comprehensive analysis of the situation on the real estate market in Italy allows us to make forecasts for the coming years. Experts Santino Taverna, President of the Federation of Italian Real Estate Mediators and Agents (FIMAA), Gian Battista Baccarini, President of the Federation of Italian Professional Real Estate Agents (FIAIP), and Paolo Bellini, Vice President of the Association of Italian Agents and Business Mediators (ANAMA), draw conclusions based on up-to-date data.

What to expect from the real estate market in 2024 in terms of transactions and prices?

Taverna (FIMAA): Forecasts for 2024 indicate a relative stability in the number of transactions, with a potential increase in demand in cities such asMilan, Rome, Florence and Venice, indicating market stability and interest in certain urban areas. Regarding prices, stability is generally expected, with a possible increase in the cities mentioned. This indicates a dynamic market situation with regional variations determined by local demand.

Baccarini (FIAIP):

We expect 2024 to be similar to 2023 in terms of the number of transactions or slightly lower, but with a gradual increase in secondary housing transactions, which are mainly bought for investment and rented out for short-term rentals due to high yields and the absence of the risks of debt and difficulty in repossession. This confirms that more and more citizens are choosing to use their savings to preserve them from the effects of inflation, which entails less need for credit. We believe that market prices will largely remain stable, with slight increases in the central areas of metropolitan, arts and university cities. This will make access to housing more difficult for less affluent families, but will incentivize real estate as the best and safest investment for citizens, as well as an important strategic support for the entire banking system and the guarantee of public debt (which has risen to 2.85 trillion euros), i.e. the value of distributed real estate.

Bellini (ANAMA):

The year 2024 should be the year of recovery from the recession recorded last year, due to the increase in mortgage interest rates and an international environment characterized by new conflicts creating a state of general uncertainty. The year 2024 is also the year of preparation of Italy for the Jubilee of 2025 and therefore the reception of thousands of pilgrims from all over the world. Therefore, a flurry of buying of buildings or small-to-medium units for religious tourism is expected. Added to this is the constant growth of tourists who choose Italy as a destination. This creates a potential market conducive to the renovation and modernization of real estate.

If you have to pick a hot new year's theme in real estate, what would it be?

Baccarini (FIAIP): A hot topic will be the housing problem, which has become more acute in the last year due to a number of factors, including difficulties in accessing credit, high prices due to a lack of supply relative to demand, especially for medium and long-term rentals, which are becoming less and less reliable and profitable compared to short-term rentals, and the lack of an adequate housing policy. This is why the newly formed commission of the Ministry of Interior, was asked to develop a strategic national plan for housing, as well as for general real estate, the first in the last 70 years. This plan cannot do without concrete cooperation between the public and private sectors, as well as the establishment of clear guidelines for all cities to adopt certain housing and urban planning policies, including structured individual housing, both social and public, as well as incentive criteria for private initiative, both fiscal and technical, aimed at supporting, rather than forcing, the environmental and digital reorientation of real estate, which will make our country's

Bellini (ANAMA):

Renovation.

Tavern (FIMAA):

The main theme in 2024 will be the rental sector. The growing demand, driven by various factors such as professional mobility, economic uncertainty, and requests from students, is facing a supply shortage that cannot fully meet the demand. In response to these changes, we believe it is necessary to review the current rental regulations. This review should adapt to the new market challenges, ensuring a fair balance between landlords and tenants while supporting sustainable growth in the rental sector.

What will be the biggest challenge for market operators in 2024?

Bellini (ANAMA): The main issue remains the ability to purchase real estate in large cities for subsequent resale, a phenomenon typical ofMilan, Florence, Bologna, Naples, Rome, Palermo, Bolzano, Bergamo, and Turin, especially in their central areas. As for other regions, the "buyer client" plays a valuable role due to the large supply of real estate on the "peripheries" of Italian cities. Additionally, it is necessary to support the real estate market related to the "bed space" market for students. Notably, the price of 650 euros for a bed space in Bolzano stands out, as well as the well-known markets in Milan andRome, and university cities such as Padua, Bologna, and Ferrara, where the cost of a single bed space ranges from 500 to 750 euros, with prices becoming even more significant when a private bathroom is available.

Tavern (FIMAA): The main challenge in 2024 will be related to economic recovery. Developing measures for recovery will help restore the purchasing power lost by families due to inflation. Real estate operators need to develop flexible strategies to adapt to the changing environment. Early forecasting of economic trends and the development of innovative solutions to meet the changing needs of clients will be key points for successfully overcoming market challenges in 2024.

Baccarini (FIAIP): The main challenges will be improving the quality of services provided, as well as raising awareness of our strategic role in building trust in the market. I am absolutely convinced that this depends on us, real estate agents, who work daily on the front lines of "communicating with people," and are capable of assessing and communicating to the community that the most reliable protection for their savings is investing in real estate. There is also an objective need for obtaining a mortgage to purchase housing. This requires balance, common sense, as well as trust and optimism, which are always the driving forces for the real estate and credit market, but are also essential characteristics for our important work.