Immobiliare: fluctuations, positive outlook for the long term.

The real estate market is unpredictable, but forecasts long-term growth.

The eighth edition of the Real Estate DATA HUB, which was prepared by the RE/MAX Italia Research Center in collaboration with Avalon Real Estate and the 24MAX Training and Research Department, shows these results. The study presents detailed analytical data on the cities of Milan, Bergamo, Rome and Naples, as well as the respective regions, divided into categories: residential, logistics, office, commercial and hotel real estate.

"As expected, the rise in interest rates combined with the increase in real estate prices has led to a decrease in transaction volume in late 2022 and early 2023, resulting in lower demand with stable supply," says Dario Castiglia,' 'CEO and founder of RE/MAX Italia.

"This scenario could extend into the last part of the year, especially if interest rates are kept high for another 12-18 months." The impact of the macroeconomic situation on real estate seems unfavorable in the short term, but a positive picture in the medium to long term is evident from the study due to the likely stabilization of interest rates.

"The dynamics of the real estate market in the coming months will obviously depend strongly on the intervention of monetary policy, which will influence investors' decisions and the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of the number of transactions, volumes, yields and prices," adds Castilla.

Positive Vision RE/MAX' 'Italia refers to an increase in the number of new transactions in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year. Buyers' preference remains for three-bedroom apartments (approximately 40% of the total), and there has also been an increase in sales of apartments with five or more rooms.

Among the regions contributing to the real estate market, in the north we see Lombardy, Veneto and Piedmont; in the center it is Lazio, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany; in the south it is Puglia and Campania. When comparing the first three quarters of 2023 with the same period in 2022, we can see a decrease in demand across Italy.

With regard to prices, in the short term, with the exception of the first quarter (+2.4% of 2022), there is a year-on-year decrease' '(third quarter starts at -7%), but overall forecasts point to rising prices over the long term.

Finally, some mortgage data.